Agree.Im torn on the askren fight. Maia will most likely have better stand up than ben but i also think Askren will be happy to take Maia down.
Can Ben lay and pray for 3 rounds in Maia's guard? I think so.
Bj where are u hitting these openers? At 5d?
I agree with your suggestion above about waiting until other books open. In fact, it looks like someone is manipulating the lines at 5d and i wish people wouldnt be so quick to hammer it back. We could get some amazing prices with bigger limits. For example, that michael johnson line got moved to -135 at dimes, but that didnt last very long.
you are correct that we cant expect people not to bet it. this would require cooperation from the wider mma betting community. as you mentioned before its probably only a handful of people that are betting these openers, but the difficulty is identifying those individuals (might be impossible if they are not on social media), and then getting them to cooperate by waiting. most people have the mentality of "if i dont bet it, someone else will". this makes it inherently difficult to convince someone to hold off.Yes, on 5 dimes.
Yeah i agree. About the manipulation, its more that the limits now are so small, that any bettor will affect the line. But the bookies i think, take the chance that the people who are first out and move the line, are the sharps. So they trust in us to set the correct line. First they let us set the line but payed the price when we soaked up the good price. The problem now is that they understand that there is now point of letting us bet as so much also in combination with generally low liquidity in the market at the point of release. Its more the development now i dont like.
I will just stop and play the openers. When MJ is at -135 when he should be lets say -300-250, we cant expect people to not bet it. But its no point longterm to bet those line when they lower the limit to 80 dollars. Long term a lot of line will be set inaccurately due to low action on openers if everyone just stick together and wait before 3-4 bookies also have the odds up.
The opening limits are so small nowadays, that most of the bettors I chat with elsewhere have stopped hitting the early lines. It's not worth killing the odds to win $50 or $100 at 5dimes who usually opens them. As a matter of fact a couple of the guys are betting the opposite side in hope of moving the lines advantageously and timing it so that they can make a real bet at improved or still decent odds when other books like BetOnline, Bookmaker or Bovada copy the lines. There's been some debate as to whether they are wasting their money doing this. I've noticed that lately for many fights, there is no need to rush to hit the early lines anyway since the odds move closer to even in a lot of cases making one or both sides better than when they opened and reasonable to make a big wager either way.We cant stop everyone and we cant stop the worst priced line, but maybe its possible to get an understanding in the mma community that this is counterintuitive. On forums, on twitter etc. I dont know, it might be unrealistic.
The opening limits are so small nowadays, that most of the bettors I chat with elsewhere have stopped hitting the early lines. It's not worth killing the odds to win $50 or $100 at 5dimes who usually opens them. As a matter of fact a couple of the guys are betting the opposite side in hope of moving the lines advantageously and timing it so that they can make a real bet at improved or still decent odds when other books like BetOnline, Bookmaker or Bovada copy the lines. There's been some debate as to whether they are wasting their money doing this. I've noticed that lately for many fights, there is no need to rush to hit the early lines anyway since the odds move closer to even in a lot of cases making one or both sides better than when they opened and reasonable to make a big wager either way.
It obviously also raises the question, who should be allowed to bet first? On which bookies?
Normally 5dimes set the lines for an upcoming event on tuesday, around late wednesday the other bookies in europe look at follow with the set line from 5dimes.
Very interesting. I feel like we should start a group or whatever and try to manipulate the lines the other way, go in with 200 dollars each, as a project. haha it would have been legendary. Get things at +100 which should be like -400 or something.
No but i hear you, i really hope we can come together on this point.
If you had a fresh account or an account that hasnt been monitored yet on 5d. You could probably make this work. I know 2 people who move 5d lines with small $20 bets.
I know couple accts that can move emIf you had a fresh account or an account that hasnt been monitored yet on 5d. You could probably make this work. I know 2 people who move 5d lines with small $20 bets.
Five rounds favors Askren as well, Maia will be exhausted.