UFN 162 on ESPN+ 20 Maia vs Askren

Will

Administrator
Staff member
Im torn on the askren fight. Maia will most likely have better stand up than ben but i also think Askren will be happy to take Maia down.

Can Ben lay and pray for 3 rounds in Maia's guard? I think so.
 

mmaed

Member
Im torn on the askren fight. Maia will most likely have better stand up than ben but i also think Askren will be happy to take Maia down.

Can Ben lay and pray for 3 rounds in Maia's guard? I think so.
Agree.
 

bjpenn85

Member
In regard to lines in the mma market, they are released first on 5dimes and sometimes betonline. My wish is that as many of us be more careful with the openers, especially me, ive been an idiot.

For instance, i fucked up the MJ line at -200. If i hadnt made that bet, we would all get MJ to -200, most likely, if not another douche had taken the bate. I actually made the last bet before the line was sat.

Limits on the openers is ludacris. Even in may this year, i was able to put 150 dollars before the odds moved....lets say 150 dollars on a line at +160...then +140 etc.....now they jump...they set the line at +160 but then make the jump often to +120, or worse.

This is a mixture of the amount of money that comes in, but also the persons making the bet, i believe. I put 80 dollars a couple of days ago and the line on MJ moved from -200 to -262 instantly. This is a shift. This has not happened before.

So, for instance, i like Rozenstruik to beat Andrei Arlovsky in the upcoming event, and the first wave of bettors have made their move on him and moved the line from -169 to the current line which is -208. This is more than likely, not more than 1 single person, max 2. So imo, theres no point of making a bet on Ruzenstruik right now. Our signal should be when the odds on Ruzenstruik is (falsely) set on other bookies, to make our move. To take the openers only help the bookies to set the correct line and none of us will get anything in return.


The line on Ruzenstruik should be set at -285, not -208 which the line is currently. But i have no interest in betting 100 dollars on him, so im awaiting until the rest of the market, sets the incorrect line on Ruzenstruik at -208, and then FUCK shit up.

Sorry for the long text, but this may save us all money, so i thought it was important to get out there!
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Bj where are u hitting these openers? At 5d?

I agree with your suggestion above about waiting until other books open. In fact, it looks like someone is manipulating the lines at 5d and i wish people wouldnt be so quick to hammer it back. We could get some amazing prices with bigger limits. For example, that michael johnson line got moved to -135 at dimes, but that didnt last very long.
 

bjpenn85

Member
Bj where are u hitting these openers? At 5d?

I agree with your suggestion above about waiting until other books open. In fact, it looks like someone is manipulating the lines at 5d and i wish people wouldnt be so quick to hammer it back. We could get some amazing prices with bigger limits. For example, that michael johnson line got moved to -135 at dimes, but that didnt last very long.
Yes, on 5 dimes.

Yeah i agree. About the manipulation, its more that the limits now are so small, that any bettor will affect the line. But the bookies i think, take the chance that the people who are first out and move the line, are the sharps. So they trust in us to set the correct line. First they let us set the line but payed the price when we soaked up the good price. The problem now is that they understand that there is now point of letting us bet as so much also in combination with generally low liquidity in the market at the point of release. Its more the development now i dont like.

I will just stop and play the openers. When MJ is at -135 when he should be lets say -300-250, we cant expect people to not bet it. But its no point longterm to bet those line when they lower the limit to 80 dollars. Long term a lot of line will be set inaccurately due to low action on openers if everyone just stick together and wait before 3-4 bookies also have the odds up.
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Yes, on 5 dimes.

Yeah i agree. About the manipulation, its more that the limits now are so small, that any bettor will affect the line. But the bookies i think, take the chance that the people who are first out and move the line, are the sharps. So they trust in us to set the correct line. First they let us set the line but payed the price when we soaked up the good price. The problem now is that they understand that there is now point of letting us bet as so much also in combination with generally low liquidity in the market at the point of release. Its more the development now i dont like.

I will just stop and play the openers. When MJ is at -135 when he should be lets say -300-250, we cant expect people to not bet it. But its no point longterm to bet those line when they lower the limit to 80 dollars. Long term a lot of line will be set inaccurately due to low action on openers if everyone just stick together and wait before 3-4 bookies also have the odds up.
you are correct that we cant expect people not to bet it. this would require cooperation from the wider mma betting community. as you mentioned before its probably only a handful of people that are betting these openers, but the difficulty is identifying those individuals (might be impossible if they are not on social media), and then getting them to cooperate by waiting. most people have the mentality of "if i dont bet it, someone else will". this makes it inherently difficult to convince someone to hold off.
 

bjpenn85

Member
We cant stop everyone and we cant stop the worst priced line, but maybe its possible to get an understanding in the mma community that this is counterintuitive. On forums, on twitter etc. I dont know, it might be unrealistic.
 

JimGunn

Active Member
We cant stop everyone and we cant stop the worst priced line, but maybe its possible to get an understanding in the mma community that this is counterintuitive. On forums, on twitter etc. I dont know, it might be unrealistic.
The opening limits are so small nowadays, that most of the bettors I chat with elsewhere have stopped hitting the early lines. It's not worth killing the odds to win $50 or $100 at 5dimes who usually opens them. As a matter of fact a couple of the guys are betting the opposite side in hope of moving the lines advantageously and timing it so that they can make a real bet at improved or still decent odds when other books like BetOnline, Bookmaker or Bovada copy the lines. There's been some debate as to whether they are wasting their money doing this. I've noticed that lately for many fights, there is no need to rush to hit the early lines anyway since the odds move closer to even in a lot of cases making one or both sides better than when they opened and reasonable to make a big wager either way.
 

bjpenn85

Member
It obviously also raises the question, who should be allowed to bet first? On which bookies?

Normally 5dimes set the lines for an upcoming event on tuesday, around late wednesday the other bookies in europe look at follow with the set line from 5dimes.
The opening limits are so small nowadays, that most of the bettors I chat with elsewhere have stopped hitting the early lines. It's not worth killing the odds to win $50 or $100 at 5dimes who usually opens them. As a matter of fact a couple of the guys are betting the opposite side in hope of moving the lines advantageously and timing it so that they can make a real bet at improved or still decent odds when other books like BetOnline, Bookmaker or Bovada copy the lines. There's been some debate as to whether they are wasting their money doing this. I've noticed that lately for many fights, there is no need to rush to hit the early lines anyway since the odds move closer to even in a lot of cases making one or both sides better than when they opened and reasonable to make a big wager either way.
Very interesting. I feel like we should start a group or whatever and try to manipulate the lines the other way, go in with 200 dollars each, as a project. haha it would have been legendary. Get things at +100 which should be like -400 or something.

No but i hear you, i really hope we can come together on this point.
 

bjpenn85

Member
2u on Salihkov. I was wrong about this dude, i thought he was getting KOs by luck, or by loading up etc. I was dead wrong. This guy is a phenom in kickboxing, and hes KOs are times and planned and does not represent luck at all. Starpoli trying to find out his style a bit, but gasses and leaves openings. Its very dangerous to fight like this against Salihkov, he will find a pattern, because there are are a lot of repetitive paterns in Starpolis game, especially after he has switched stances. I believe another KO here.
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
It obviously also raises the question, who should be allowed to bet first? On which bookies?

Normally 5dimes set the lines for an upcoming event on tuesday, around late wednesday the other bookies in europe look at follow with the set line from 5dimes.


Very interesting. I feel like we should start a group or whatever and try to manipulate the lines the other way, go in with 200 dollars each, as a project. haha it would have been legendary. Get things at +100 which should be like -400 or something.

No but i hear you, i really hope we can come together on this point.
If you had a fresh account or an account that hasnt been monitored yet on 5d. You could probably make this work. I know 2 people who move 5d lines with small $20 bets.
 

lucky

Active Member
If you had a fresh account or an account that hasnt been monitored yet on 5d. You could probably make this work. I know 2 people who move 5d lines with small $20 bets.
I know couple accts that can move em
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
Just me personally, but i cant see an upside to prebetting askren as a favorite. Maia will likely have better standup and theoretically, askren may be hesitant to take him down in the first round while they are both dry and Maia's cardio has not failed him.
 
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