Be Willing To Give Up Small Edges If They May Cost You Large Edges Later
or
Kelly Isn't The Only Criterion
I know, I've said it before, take every edge you can get, no matter how small. The longer the road, the more the bumps smooth out. But sometimes this is not true.or
Kelly Isn't The Only Criterion
Let's imagine you're in a poker game with a soft opponent.
You raise small with QQ, and he overbets the pot and shoves all in. Before you can decide what to do, he shows you his hand, it is AK. Automatic call, right?
You've played with him before, and you know that when he doubles his stake he is going to quit the game. If he goes bust, he'll quit as well.
From a pure EV perspective in a vacuum this hand is an automatic call. But you know you can grind him down without playing these large variance situations. So, in this case, the proper play is to fold.
So, how does this apply to sportsbetting?
When poker Black Friday hit, I had been messing around with sports on the side, but not too serious. I realized quickly that making a living as an internet poker player was pretty much over. My choices were figure out how to beat sports, commit suicide, play poker live full time, or get a job (in pretty much that order of preference).
While trying to figure out sports I found a futures market that was WAY off. I estimated a 20% edge on several bets. I took the remaining bits of my bankroll that hadn't been stolen or frozen, and put about 80% of them on these gigantic edges. Six months later, my bets paid off with nearly a 50% profit.
But what happened in the interim? I had crippled myself financially, I was finding all sorts of daily bets I could make, and could only bet 20% of what I would've had my whole bankroll been available. While I grew my bankroll a considerable amount over that 6 months, I could've done much better by giving up on those bets. The daily small % churn was much more valuable than I realized it. I increased my chances of going broke and reduced my profitability.
If bankroll is a concern, always ask yourself, what else could I do with this money in the interim? Donald Trump does not win Presidency at -6000 is free money. It cashes 100% of the time. How much interest could you earn with that same money invested somewhere else in the interim, however?
The corollary to this is what I call The Hustler's Law.
Be willing to play at negative expectation if it gives you large edges later.
Throwing away money is the MOST painful thing I can think of. But sometimes it pays dividends.
In the poker world you see this with successful cash game players. A good player is willing to splash around in pots and give action in order to get action later. A tight guy who only plays premium hands is going to have a huge edge when he gets the money in, but he'll find his opponents have folded as soon as he has entered the pot.
In the pool world, a hustler may let you win a few games at $10 a piece, and then sudddenly when we've upped the stakes to $100 a game, he's suddenly improved.
In the sports world, we accomplish this by giving square action back to the books. If you're only pounding +EV lines, small markets, and props, the books are going to find out about you fast. The more square bets you throw in, the longer you're going to last.
Throw in some square parlays. Spend some time in the casino/poker room. Bet the super bowl at EVERY book. The account you save, may be your own!
