so a few interesting spots here
velickovic down to -140 from that -210 opener, i absolutely like it. dude is good everywhere, he's been decent in both ufc fights so far.. he's enormous for 170 and you have aliev, who is coming off of that ko to freakin kenny robertson (man that killed me that night) -- which was his last fight, in JANUARY 2016, so 23 months off. and we just saw at ufc 206.. these layoffs are fuckin important.
aldana -230 opener i liked just fine. smith is so slow. she's a tough girl but i think aldana absolutely pieces her up, might even get the finish.
hiorota -120 i took , kinda fading cole miller. he's been so lethargic, lots of candid, honest talk about his career, his situation.. yea, he came on strong in rd 3 vs caceres but i'm basically fading miller here. hirota's the better boxer and wrestler. cole is the better bjj guy.
i took jouban -105, but i'm kinda regretting it, idk. i definitely underestimated perry and he definitely proved a LOT against roberts last fight. he's tough as hell, he has a great chin, and his wrestling/ground are better than i thought they would be, too. BUTTT jouban's faced better guys, he's bigger, i think it's a great fight, but i might be on the wrong side, chins being the biggest difference.
i took PVZ -140, too, i just think waterson is so hit or miss. i would be like "oh i'll just bet waterson sub" -- but man, PVZ is so hard to finish, remember the rose fight.. sooo many chances, and i don't think waterson will be as fresh in rd 5 as rose was. i think pvz outpaces her.
i kinda wish i bet sage +140 just for movement's sake, even tho i favor gall here. i just think it's a BIG mistake to go either BIG on this fight OR to lay a high price. it's a volatile fight, both guys absolutely unproven. sage has more octagon time, he's gotta grow from that. but he's shown to be SUUUUPER green on the ground, and gall looks super slick and he can force the grappling. but who knows if it goes late. i think sage as a dog makes a lot of sense. my gut feel is gall subs him, tho.