UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento
- Thread starter ezflyer
- Start date
ezflyer
Active Member
http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-on-fox-22-betting-odds/
UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson
DECEMBER 17, 2016
Golden 1 Center | Sacramento, California
MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET)
Michelle Waterson +140
Paige VanZant -180
Over 4.5 -190
Under 4.5 +150
–
Sage Northcutt +100
Mickey Gall -140
Over 1.5 +100
Under 1.5 -140
–
Brad Pickett +280
Urijah Faber -400
Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +110
–
Alan Jouban +100
Mike Perry -140
Over 1.5 +100
Under 1.5 -140
–
——————–
PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 6pm ET)
Paul Craig +220
Luis Henrique da Silva -300
Over 1.5 +130
Under 1.5 -170
–
Mizuto Hirota -120
Cole Miller -120
Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110
–
Bryan Barberena +235
Colby Covington -315
Over 2.5 -210
Under 2.5 +160
–
Alex Morono +110
James Moontasri -150
Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
–
Scott Holtzman +170
Josh Emmett -230
Over 2.5 -180
Under 2.5 +140
–
Leslie Smith +170
Irene Aldana -230
Over 2.5 -185
Under 2.5 +145
–
——————–
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3:30pm ET)
Takeya Mizugaki +175
Eddie Wineland -245
Over 1.5 -195
Under 1.5 +155
–
Hector Sandoval +130
Fredy Serrano -170
Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
–
Sultan Aliev +160
Bojan Velickovic -210
Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
–
UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson
DECEMBER 17, 2016
Golden 1 Center | Sacramento, California
MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET)
Michelle Waterson +140
Paige VanZant -180
Over 4.5 -190
Under 4.5 +150
–
Sage Northcutt +100
Mickey Gall -140
Over 1.5 +100
Under 1.5 -140
–
Brad Pickett +280
Urijah Faber -400
Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +110
–
Alan Jouban +100
Mike Perry -140
Over 1.5 +100
Under 1.5 -140
–
——————–
PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 6pm ET)
Paul Craig +220
Luis Henrique da Silva -300
Over 1.5 +130
Under 1.5 -170
–
Mizuto Hirota -120
Cole Miller -120
Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110
–
Bryan Barberena +235
Colby Covington -315
Over 2.5 -210
Under 2.5 +160
–
Alex Morono +110
James Moontasri -150
Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
–
Scott Holtzman +170
Josh Emmett -230
Over 2.5 -180
Under 2.5 +140
–
Leslie Smith +170
Irene Aldana -230
Over 2.5 -185
Under 2.5 +145
–
——————–
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3:30pm ET)
Takeya Mizugaki +175
Eddie Wineland -245
Over 1.5 -195
Under 1.5 +155
–
Hector Sandoval +130
Fredy Serrano -170
Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
–
Sultan Aliev +160
Bojan Velickovic -210
Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140
–
ezflyer
Active Member
so a few interesting spots here
velickovic down to -140 from that -210 opener, i absolutely like it. dude is good everywhere, he's been decent in both ufc fights so far.. he's enormous for 170 and you have aliev, who is coming off of that ko to freakin kenny robertson (man that killed me that night) -- which was his last fight, in JANUARY 2016, so 23 months off. and we just saw at ufc 206.. these layoffs are fuckin important.
aldana -230 opener i liked just fine. smith is so slow. she's a tough girl but i think aldana absolutely pieces her up, might even get the finish.
hiorota -120 i took , kinda fading cole miller. he's been so lethargic, lots of candid, honest talk about his career, his situation.. yea, he came on strong in rd 3 vs caceres but i'm basically fading miller here. hirota's the better boxer and wrestler. cole is the better bjj guy.
i took jouban -105, but i'm kinda regretting it, idk. i definitely underestimated perry and he definitely proved a LOT against roberts last fight. he's tough as hell, he has a great chin, and his wrestling/ground are better than i thought they would be, too. BUTTT jouban's faced better guys, he's bigger, i think it's a great fight, but i might be on the wrong side, chins being the biggest difference.
i took PVZ -140, too, i just think waterson is so hit or miss. i would be like "oh i'll just bet waterson sub" -- but man, PVZ is so hard to finish, remember the rose fight.. sooo many chances, and i don't think waterson will be as fresh in rd 5 as rose was. i think pvz outpaces her.
i kinda wish i bet sage +140 just for movement's sake, even tho i favor gall here. i just think it's a BIG mistake to go either BIG on this fight OR to lay a high price. it's a volatile fight, both guys absolutely unproven. sage has more octagon time, he's gotta grow from that. but he's shown to be SUUUUPER green on the ground, and gall looks super slick and he can force the grappling. but who knows if it goes late. i think sage as a dog makes a lot of sense. my gut feel is gall subs him, tho.
velickovic down to -140 from that -210 opener, i absolutely like it. dude is good everywhere, he's been decent in both ufc fights so far.. he's enormous for 170 and you have aliev, who is coming off of that ko to freakin kenny robertson (man that killed me that night) -- which was his last fight, in JANUARY 2016, so 23 months off. and we just saw at ufc 206.. these layoffs are fuckin important.
aldana -230 opener i liked just fine. smith is so slow. she's a tough girl but i think aldana absolutely pieces her up, might even get the finish.
hiorota -120 i took , kinda fading cole miller. he's been so lethargic, lots of candid, honest talk about his career, his situation.. yea, he came on strong in rd 3 vs caceres but i'm basically fading miller here. hirota's the better boxer and wrestler. cole is the better bjj guy.
i took jouban -105, but i'm kinda regretting it, idk. i definitely underestimated perry and he definitely proved a LOT against roberts last fight. he's tough as hell, he has a great chin, and his wrestling/ground are better than i thought they would be, too. BUTTT jouban's faced better guys, he's bigger, i think it's a great fight, but i might be on the wrong side, chins being the biggest difference.
i took PVZ -140, too, i just think waterson is so hit or miss. i would be like "oh i'll just bet waterson sub" -- but man, PVZ is so hard to finish, remember the rose fight.. sooo many chances, and i don't think waterson will be as fresh in rd 5 as rose was. i think pvz outpaces her.
i kinda wish i bet sage +140 just for movement's sake, even tho i favor gall here. i just think it's a BIG mistake to go either BIG on this fight OR to lay a high price. it's a volatile fight, both guys absolutely unproven. sage has more octagon time, he's gotta grow from that. but he's shown to be SUUUUPER green on the ground, and gall looks super slick and he can force the grappling. but who knows if it goes late. i think sage as a dog makes a lot of sense. my gut feel is gall subs him, tho.
Barbena, Pickett and Miz seems too wide to me..
ezflyer
Active Member
miz decision, tho? can't finish squat.. wineland did look rejuvenated last time....
pickett man, he got starched so hard.. but urijah just urijah's .. (doesn't do shit, standing on outside).. but it's in sacramento...
barberena i can't figure out. i think he capitalizes on guys gassing, frankly. outlasts them. i don't see covington gassing...
Got a big bet on Gall +140 from EU book as well. Sage doesnt seem to be improving.
Barberena is very very good in the clinch, put coving could maybe just double leg him from the outside for 3 rounds
Barberena is very very good in the clinch, put coving could maybe just double leg him from the outside for 3 rounds
TheCalculator
Active Member
T
And yes this could just be a grapple fuck fest.
thats a lot of juice to lay on 2 guys that can finish. I'll probably bet the not distance when it opens.
And yes this could just be a grapple fuck fest.
ezflyer
Active Member
i have a pretty low opinion of barberena's offense. but a high opinion of his defense.
i think covington wins a decision 60+% of the time here, i just hope i have the balls to bet it at even $ and not be too greedy.
barberena beats guys if they gas. he's an undersized 170 who is being lazy and should be 155. think covington takes him down at will, honestly
TheCalculator
Active Member
I'll be on Barb at these odds. He impressed me against Alves even in the first.
ezflyer
Active Member
yea i just don't like barberena. i i know i'm in the minority, but i thought alves won that fight. even gassed. don't hate. i know i'm in the minority and i also know i am not alone.
i guess i should rewatch it before committing to much here, though.
p.s. i'm not knocking anyone for doing +300 etc on barb.
so i'm kinda thinking if emmett dips to -200 range, he's actually a solid play. he is absolutely the more mobile guy and better striker here. and he looks strong as an ox, trains with a lot of good wrestlers, obviously, not sure where holtzman has an edge. i guess he's bigger/taller? but again, emmett is a strong mofo.
i guess i should rewatch it before committing to much here, though.
p.s. i'm not knocking anyone for doing +300 etc on barb.
so i'm kinda thinking if emmett dips to -200 range, he's actually a solid play. he is absolutely the more mobile guy and better striker here. and he looks strong as an ox, trains with a lot of good wrestlers, obviously, not sure where holtzman has an edge. i guess he's bigger/taller? but again, emmett is a strong mofo.
TheCalculator
Active Member
Why do you like PVZ?
I'm leaning Karate
I'm leaning Karate
ezflyer
Active Member
Perra
Active Member
Who has the grappling advantage between Waterson and PVZ? I would say PVZ has the wrestling advantage whereas Waterson is the better grappler. She has a really sweet armbar.
Have to watch tape to refresh my memory, but I think one of these girls is getting finished. Will probably be on the under or some fight to end in submission prop.
Have to watch tape to refresh my memory, but I think one of these girls is getting finished. Will probably be on the under or some fight to end in submission prop.
ezflyer
Active Member
BJJ definitely waterson, but paige with those "jelly arms" (or whatever rose called them)... Not easy to sub
I think the fight comes down to cardio, personally , think pvz has the edge
mmaed
Member
I was thinking about Gall as well. Big difference in jiu jitsu.