ufc 195 - lawler-condit

[ezflyer]

kinda thinking about ortega -160.. dude so scrappy... brandao's so flaky..

 

[ezflyer]

omg. -160 to -260 ortega so fast. F M L, i balked

 

[bum]

yep same exact thing here. i went there with the intent to take ortega and ortega + tumenov

 

[Wilbo86]

Really like Ortega here, even at the diminished price. Brandao has about half of the first round to get a KO/sub or his chances of wining drop to almost 0 IMO.

Also agree with everything Lawler backers have said already, don't see this as a good match up for Condit unless he implements another Jackson gameplan. Given its a high stakes title fight, and most likely his last chance at a title, thats a distinct possibility. On top of that, the prospect of going toe to toe with Lawler is far more dangerous than going toe to toe with Diaz was leading into their fight.

 

[ezflyer]

love the idea of betting ortega after the first round

 

[PSUMike]

My kneejerk reaction is to really like Larkin here but I need to do some tape study first. I do believe Larkin to be one of the best strikers in the division and Tumenov is fairly one-track minded IIRC with his striking. Seeing others on Tumenov makes me nervous.

 

[ezflyer]

My kneejerk reaction is to really like Larkin here but I need to do some tape study first. I do believe Larkin to be one of the best strikers in the division and Tumenov is fairly one-track minded IIRC with his striking. Seeing others on Tumenov makes me nervous.

what do you mean? like variety of strikes? in other words larkin more kicks?

 

[PSUMike]

What I meant by that was Tumenov is a striker first and that's his main skill set. One-track minded in that regard.

 

[bum]

The same can be said of Larkin, no? That's why this match-up is going to be fun.

 

[Vaughany]

yeah, problem with Larkin is he does tend to get pinned up against cage sometimes and think that is very dangerous against Tumenov. In order to beat Tumenov he is going to have to be very evasive

 

[PSUMike]

The same can be said of Larkin, no? That's why this match-up is going to be fun.

Absolutely. That's exactly why I think he has a pretty good chance at coming in as a dog but I still need to watch more tape on both.

 

[ezflyer]

yea, i don't think either of these guys will shoot. maybe if they get hurt, i guess, but this should be a standup fight

 

[JustBleedFan]

I hit these props for UFC 195:

.5u Robbie Lawler wins by 5 round decision +201
.15u Robbie Lawler wins by split/majority decision +831
.20u Andrei Arlovski by KO/TKO +505

 

[bum]

i like them all, Jim.

also kind of like robbie early or condit late.. maybe recency bias due to how a slow starter panned out vs rda. condit also known for being a slow starter.

 

[ezflyer]

UFC 195 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sat 1/2 1501 Masanori Kanehara +285 o1½ -180
9:30PM 1502 Michael McDonald -405 u1½ +140
UFC 195 - Lightweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sat 1/2 1701 Scott Holtzman -175 o2½ -215
8:30PM 1702 Drew Dober +135 u2½ +165
Sat 1/2 1801 Tony Sims -105 o1½ -140
8:00PM 1802 Abel Trujillo -135 u1½ +100
Sat 1/2 1901 Dustin Poirier +190 o1½ -135
7:30PM 1902 Joe Duffy -230 u1½ +115
UFC 195 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sat 1/2 2001 Joe Soto -105 o2½ -190
7:00PM 2002 Michinori Tanaka -135 u2½ +150

ummmmmmmmm idk

i was hoping sims would be a bigger dog i guess

kanehara i actually like but that shit will get better

 

[ezflyer]

UFC 195 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sat 1/2 2101 Sheldon Westcott -150 o1½ -150
6:30PM 2102 Edgar Garcia +110 u1½ +110

sorry that's all of them

 

[ezflyer]

whoa, trujillo -135 to +125 fast

i think that line will bounce back, hitting +125. not sure who i'll settle on in the fight.

 

[ezflyer]

mulling over dober as the dog.. tanaka... anyone know why tanaka has been out all year?

 

[ezflyer]

Tanaka got 9 month suspension. Lost FOTN bonus..

Tested positive for two banned substances... I think they were like allergy medications...

 

[Sky]

full camp sims gota be good here