General MMA Discussion & Future Lines- 2019

I think khabib will keep same gameplan for everyone and go for takedowns on all. He fears no one on the mat

 

Mark Cuban sold AXS TV recently and apparently the new owners fired the AXS TV Fights crew, so LFA 76 this Friday is the last show unless they get picked up by ESPN+ or somewhere else. Maybe they'll end up on Fight Pass since they are such a great feeder for the UFC.:

https://twitter.com/microphonephoen/status/1171926415425466369?s=21

 

KSW 50 Weigh-in:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=770032706784820

 

No weigh-in video like usual, probably since AXS TV got sold and this is the last show, at least on AXS. Weigh-in photos: https://www.mikethetruth.com/2019/09/photos-legacy-fighting-alliance-76-weigh-ins/

The Official Website of Mike "The Truth" Jackson
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I put a hundy on Nick Browne at +190 in the main event.

 

KSW 50 Risk $155.00

Phil De Fries (-155) vs Luis Henrique $155.00 for $100.00

 

https://anchor.fm/UFCunwrapped/episodes/GIANNI-THE-GREEK-PRO-GAMBLER-INTERVIEW-e591jr

 

The Gianni interview is fascinating. Did you know that he brought the ideas of "steam & wiseguys & sharps" to the MMA betting space? Yes, he literally said that. My head almost exploded ten times listening to this. And I'm only 39 minutes in. I have no idea if Gianni goes on for the entire 2 and 3/4 hours of this podcast but I am willing to find out.

Update- I'm now one hour and twenty minutes into this interview and Gianni is explaining how he derives his implied win probabilities for each fighter. He says he follows a scientific approach and had a computer programmer for 7 or 8 years and built and improved a model where they input a lot of data like opponent's record, win & finish percentages, striking data, subs vs knockouts, age, reach, stance, what gyms they train at and a whole bunch of other things for each fighter and the program spits out what he calls a power rating and a win percentage and whether the total should be 1½ or 2½. Then he compares it to the odds from the bookies and bets where he had an edge.

It sounds like a really precise and smart answer. I'm sure that smart people could create such a model and input data like that. After you make some big assumptions and create the algorithm and assign values for the different variables it's mostly just a lot of data input after that. Of course the value of any model depends on a bunch of assumptions of what variables matter and what weight each one should have versus the others and how they all interact together so the value of any model itself is always extremely questionable. Two issues though: 1- I simply don't believe him. I don't think the algorithm exists. I think he's a sharp talker and is just making it all up because it sounds smart. 2- Even if someone created such a model, there is no reason to think it would be of any use rather than simply lead you to some dubious conclusions if you slavishly followed it. In any case, I don't think any model would be successful to bet MMA if you used it as is without also following the sport closely and knowing a lot about the fighters like many fans do and pro gamblers don't. Maybe I'm just a skeptic.

 

Well that’s funny because if he has enough intellect to actually seek out an approach like that for sports betting you would think at some point he would realize it’s more effective to watch tape. I’m guessing he’s been around sports betting long enough to realize there is modeling involved in general and thinks it sounds smart for marketing purposes to claim that he’s doing it.

 

I must be mentally ill because I listened to all 2 hours and 45 minutes of this podcast of which Gianni talked almost non-stop for 2 hours and 40 minutes of it. Did you know that when he was a child that Gianni's uncle told him he was going to the zoo and instead took him to the race track where there were horses? Now you do!

 

Lmao thanks for taking one for the team and listening to that thing, Jim.

And i agree that a stats based model would not be as effective as watching tape for mma. Essentially the model would be doing mmamath.

 

I also agree. In research, a big problem investigating people who are very different to each other, heterogeneity, makes numbers difficult to analyze.

For instance, how well would Poiriers takedown defence stack up to Khabib, when theres no numbers to collect from Poirier prior opponents since he has mostly fought strikers?

There are no numbers available to make the algorithm.

So its complete horse shit.

But you have indicators like reach over 7.5 inches = 70% chance of winning, or 35+ age increases chance of loosing by TKO etc, strikes landed per min, are some numbers who holds value.

But at the end of the day, its too many factors who need to be combined together with a lot of assumptions.

And even if you got all things correct, judges may screw you over or the fighter may not show up, which happens a lot in MMA.

 

Gianni is a hack. you just need to take one look at him to realize that.

 

We talking about Gianni the Greek aka VR aka Vegas Runner, aka don't call me Vegas Runner anymore, here?

A sharp dude back over at sd once said years ago that capping mma is "qualitative not quantitative" that's the best way I can sum it up. I'm not claiming to be the sharpest dude in the world or anything but empirical evidence in this sport, like watching tape, knowing your participants by studying them in their fights w/ your own eyes, is far more valuable than crunching numbers like maybe guys do in baseball with fangraphs and sabrmetrics, shit like that. Mma and boxing don't work like that. Like @marzwoody said, if I'm thinking of the same guy, take one look at this dude's whitened teeth and fake tan and you'll know he's a suspect dude, lol.

 

One has to wonder how he got this gig as the official ufc tipster with those looks, his accent, the wiseguy gimmick, and his past reputation. Comes across as pure comedy. This guy talks shit about offshore bettors and then he boasts about hitting low limit openers at dimes. Not to mention that time he claimed to hit a 5d opener that never actually existed. Maybe he has some dirt on uncle dana?

 

If I'm thinking of the right guy, he's been around Vegas and the gambling world for a long time. so it's possible he knows Dana just from running in the same circles. Also he has a history of hanging around the Mayweather gym and back in the day Floyd said that Dana used to hang around him and ask for sponsorships or some shit, too. Not out of the question that these two, who are probably around the same age, know some shit about each other. Except Dana has a lot more to lose. Makes sense when you put it like that.

Not to mention there might be a blackjack connection as well.. Idk maybe I'm getting too conspiracy theorist w/ this shit, but maybe it could be something who knows.

 

Exactly lol. that stuff might work with other sports but mma is a different game. I still cringe a bit when I hear people call mma a sport.

 

Highly doubt it’s blackmail. My best theory, to try to sum it up: how much does the average gambler know about gambling from a technical perspective? Basically nothing. If you presented it from a technical perspective, how much would that perspective appeal to 99 percent just winging their bets? Probably very little. It could even be counter productive. Imagine your typical “just bleed” on forehead gambler(exaggeration, but not a tremendous one) listening to something that would actually require them to put in some thought. It might turn them off. So why not have a guy that is mostly entertainment speaking in a way that the average person can digest? Throw in some “experience in Vegas” or whatever he claims and you have the basic criteria for the job. Of course public speaking ability, ability to communicate, whatever is probably the what they are looking for.

That’s more or less how you get Gianni imo.

 

You have the right guy, formerly vegas runner