UFN 109 - Gus vs GT - Sweden

Perra

Active Member
Wow the favourites are getting bet like crazy.

I guess I will have to stick with mostly over/unders and some props for this event.

So far just on Smith +175/+200 and Musoke 1,72
 

Perra

Active Member
Hit the overs in both of the fights above. Besides a Camozzi KO or a Musoke freak injury I really don't see any finishes in those fights.
 

Perra

Active Member
Think Cirkunov will finish Oezdemir - but I have to play Oezdemir dec +800 - if he wins, that's how he wins I guess. By simply grinding Cirkunov and tireing him out.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Think Cirkunov will finish Oezdemir - but I have to play Oezdemir dec +800 - if he wins, that's how he wins I guess. By simply grinding Cirkunov and tireing him out.

i guess that makes sense, i'm sticking w/my big cirkunov bet, tho!
 

ezflyer

Active Member
played hadzovic small +265.. dude is legit. held is a tough fight, definitely the favorite.. but he can slow down.. and if hadzovic can keep it on the feet, he has a big edge.
 

Perra

Active Member
Isn't Hadzovic pretty much worse on everything in mma than Held? I think Held was robbed against Lauzon, and that front choke where he lifted Diego I guess would've subbed someone like Hadzovic.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Isn't Hadzovic pretty much worse on everything in mma than Held? I think Held was robbed against Lauzon, and that front choke where he lifted Diego I guess would've subbed someone like Hadzovic.

absolutely a false statement. hadzovic is bigger & a better striker

held should win. obviously. way better grappler. much more experienced at high levels. but he's not someone who you can trust implicitly as a very big favorite. have you watched tape on hadzovic?
 

Perra

Active Member
absolutely a false statement. hadzovic is bigger & a better striker

held should win. obviously. way better grappler. much more experienced at high levels. but he's not someone who you can trust implicitly as a very big favorite. have you watched tape on hadzovic?

Nope - just out of memory, haven't had time to watch tape on him yet. But will do for sure.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Nope - just out of memory, haven't had time to watch tape on him yet. But will do for sure.

ok, yea, wasn't trying to be rude -- i think hadzovic is a legit prospect. i'm hardly picking him to win but like i said, held can gas, held can blow it, etc hehe. and i've been lookin forward to this guy's sophomore ufc fight

absolutely could get grapplefucked, tho
 

Perra

Active Member
ok, yea, wasn't trying to be rude -- i think hadzovic is a legit prospect. i'm hardly picking him to win but like i said, held can gas, held can blow it, etc hehe. and i've been lookin forward to this guy's sophomore ufc fight

absolutely could get grapplefucked, tho


I have watched tape on him now, and I really don't see what you see in him. He looked pretty good vs Taisumov until he got hit - but no shame in losing to Taisumov who is an absolute beast. But I wasn't impressed with him vs Delaney or Musardo. The only thing that made me a bit impressed by him was the timing on that beautiful knee to the head in rd 3 vs Delaney.

I guess I will just pass on this fight.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Fair enough
 

ezflyer

Active Member
i like GT NSC +253 more than GT +270 ML -- partially cause fight is in sweden.

i also like GT +5.5 +155

think i'm going w/these two lines instead of the ML (at least for now)

realistically, even tho they're both good finishers, this should prolly go 5 rounds. in fact, they've both just been stopped twice EVER.. and more specifically... since they became the fighters they are today, they've only been finished once.. both to AJ in rd 1. GT's pro debut tko loss in 2002 is beyond irrelevant and gus' sub loss to davis was when he was young and green.

wish that BM O2.5 -120 was real.. they still have no O/U on this event right now
 

ezflyer

Active Member
munhoz sub +290
 

ezflyer

Active Member
man i wish i did a full unit on that munhoz sub +290.. he's had 3 guillotines in the last 4 fights.. it's one of the better ones in the sport.. and stasiak is gonna have to grapple here, being the slower guy on the feet etc.. i think he walks right into another munhoz guillotine...
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Yea I'm adding a bit more to Bojangles here. I don't get this line *at all*

Musoke has always been a gasser. And he's been m.i.a. for what 28 months? Only fighting cause it's in Sweden.

Im stabbing at velickovic Rd 3 +2000 and sub +940 in addition to a moderate dog play on the moneyline and some bojan nsc +127
 

Perra

Active Member
Yea I'm adding a bit more to Bojangles here. I don't get this line *at all*

Musoke has always been a gasser. And he's been m.i.a. for what 28 months? Only fighting cause it's in Sweden.

Im stabbing at velickovic Rd 3 +2000 and sub +940 in addition to a moderate dog play on the moneyline and some bojan nsc +127

If Gastelum and Tumenov couldn't finish him, what makes you think that Bojan can?

Hard to know where Musoke is at right now. But he's spent the last 6months at Tristar and looks to be in shape. Also when I rewatched Bojangles last two fights, I don't understand how the fight vs Aliev was a split, I think he lost that one clearly. Same thing with Graves, I wouldn't have scored it a draw, but given it to Graves. For me, Bojan is a jack of all trades that doesn't really shine anywhere.

I think an in shape and motivated Musoke is better pretty much everywhere, well maybe not the cardio.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
If Gastelum and Tumenov couldn't finish him, what makes you think that Bojan can?

Hard to know where Musoke is at right now. But he's spent the last 6months at Tristar and looks to be in shape. Also when I rewatched Bojangles last two fights, I don't understand how the fight vs Aliev was a split, I think he lost that one clearly. Same thing with Graves, I wouldn't have scored it a draw, but given it to Graves. For me, Bojan is a jack of all trades that doesn't really shine anywhere.

I think an in shape and motivated Musoke is better pretty much everywhere, well maybe not the cardio.

you absolutely have to factor in this layoff. it's crazy not to

definitely not cardio and musoke has never been great on the feet, frankly.. i guess it might've been better to live bet bojan but i still like my action.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
just rewatched taisumov-hadzovic, man, i disagree.. i see somethin in this guy.

he EASILY could just get taken down by held and be totally screwed here, but he's legit.

the stoppage was bs, too.
 
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