Did some tape study on ihor / Rua last night.
The narrative is, Rua is toast and this should be a layup for ihor. I started watching tape with this bias in mind.
Ihor will be noticeably quicker vs Rua and IF he went for it could likely get a first rd finish. However, how will Ihor bounce back from what was an exceptionally brutal finish against neg. I assume he will be a lot more timid in a bid to avoid a repeat which will result in him conserving energy and pushing the fight longer.
Ihor did slow down towards the end of rd 1 but Neg implemented a wrestle heavy game plan which I don’t see from rua. So he theoretically shouldn’t slow down as much/at all against Rua but he might, fighting in brazil, fighting ufc level competition ( he is historically a can crusher ).
My recommendations would be
- Same game parlay – Ihor / After rd 1 ( You can get this at plus odds )
- Wait for a live entry on Rua to see if Ihor slows down again.
This is a volatile fight would not play chalk here on any angle.