UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt

ezflyer

Active Member
http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-Fight-Night-88-Almeida-vs-Garbrandt-50941

 

ezflyer

Active Member
upload_2016-5-14_19-49-57.png
 

ezflyer

Active Member
love larkin -115, wow, maxing that.

think i like miranda, too
 

JustBleedFan

Moderator
Staff member
I hate the fact that they sneak these lines out during a UFC card. No way you can convince me that's not on purpose. Anyway, you guys drove the line down a little bit, but I joined the Larkin party at -135 to win 2u.
 

JoshKnows46

Active Member
I hate the fact that they sneak these lines out during a UFC card. No way you can convince me that's not on purpose. Anyway, you guys drove the line down a little bit, but I joined the Larkin party at -135 to win 2u.

yea i think they do it on purpose, but we know now lol...I Will eventually have a total of $1500 on larkin. 5 unit play, and I've already told my clients as much, its gonna climb much higher, probable be in the -185 range soon. i'm maxing it each line change, i'd play it up to -240.
 

Vaughany

Active Member
Should say, I'm a big Garbrandt fan, but I'm basing this play on the theory that I think Almeida will lure Garbrandt in to a slugfest at some point and I don't think Garbrandt is the type who can deal with much punishment. Could be completely wrong - he is from Ohio after all, usually tough and gritty like Lil Heathen but just things I've seen in him before that makes me question his durability. He hasn't fought anybody who possesses really dangerous stand-up and not anybody with legit power
 

Mirinquads

Active Member
Staff member
Anyone know exactly why Erik Koch has been out so long? Just injuries upon injuries?
 

ezflyer

Active Member
I really don't think grappling will play a factor at all here. I don't think masvidal can take Larkin down (don't think hell try, for that matter)
 

JoshKnows46

Active Member
Masvidal is no joke mofos! Better grappler, tough as hell, decent cardio. Think he can scrape a decision win here

same thoughts as easy, larkin's td defense is too good for masvidel to get the fight to the ground, and becuase of like you mention, his toughness, masvidel will not even attempt a takedown, striking match = BIG advantage larkin, wrestlin advantage athetism advantage larkin, cardio advanatage larkin as well. no brainer 5 unit play. Larkin dec may be of value as well.
 
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JoshKnows46

Active Member
Also one of my clients just messaged me on twitter saying "fuckboy jibby is on masvidal, might want to double the bet lol" so there's that.
 

Vaughany

Active Member
same thoughts as easy, larkin's td defense is too good for masvidel to get the fight to the ground, and becuase of like you mention, his toughness, masvidel will not even attempt a takedown, striking match = BIG advantage larkin, wrestlin advantage athetism advantage larkin, cardio advanatage larkin as well. no brainer 5 unit play. Larkin dec may be of value as well.
Im not sure about cardio advantage - Masvidal looked fine in a 5 rounder with Benson. Why wrestling advantage? Last few guys he's fought he hasnt had to worry about takedown threat - especially with Ponzinibbio and Tumenov. Absolutely agree that he has a speed and athleticism advantage and there is a good chance that Masvidal does just stand and brawl with him. But at same time Masvidal has used his wrestling before - beat Semtex by just stealing rounds with the odd takedown and cage pressure. And I cant forget an average wrestler in Brad Tavares taking down Larkin pretty much whenever he tried.
I agree Larkin should be favourite but I'm not sure it should be more than -130 to -150 range
For sure fight goes decision though - that at about -200 (over 2.5 is -215 currently I believe) will have value IMO
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Im not sure about cardio advantage - Masvidal looked fine in a 5 rounder with Benson. Why wrestling advantage? Last few guys he's fought he hasnt had to worry about takedown threat - especially with Ponzinibbio and Tumenov. Absolutely agree that he has a speed and athleticism advantage and there is a good chance that Masvidal does just stand and brawl with him. But at same time Masvidal has used his wrestling before - beat Semtex by just stealing rounds with the odd takedown and cage pressure. And I cant forget an average wrestler in Brad Tavares taking down Larkin pretty much whenever he tried.
I agree Larkin should be favourite but I'm not sure it should be more than -130 to -150 range
For sure fight goes decision though - that at about -200 (over 2.5 is -215 currently I believe) will have value IMO

I agree , no real cardio edge imo. And very likely to go 3 rds
 
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