UFN 159 on ESPN+ 17 Rodriguez vs Stephens

Will

Administrator
Staff member
Leans but no plays yet

Yair
Grasso
Hill (Wiki Cap / Blind on opponent)
Tyson Nam (Super small. Maybe. Auto fade on Pettis )
Paul Craig
Bethe Corrieia ( Dark horse pick. This fight will be on the feet. Eubanks can slow down. Bethe is zombie )


Thoughts on the above?
 

JimGunn

Active Member
I like Jeremy Stephens here. Yair was losing the Korean Zombie fight on the cards until that last second elbow strike, and got taken down, dominated and stopped by Frankie Edgar before that. A win over 2017 BJ Penn isn't saying much. So his best win is what Andre Fili or a drained-to-featherweight Daniel Hooker? I know Stephens has a lot of losses in his UFC run, but mostly to good fighters, usually dangerous strikers with decent takedown defense and wrestling. Does Yair have the footwork to outstrike Jeremy at range and avoid his power for five rounds and out strike him to a decision? I'm not too confident in that. I don't think Jeremy will be afraid of his flashy strikes or get caught and knocked out. You think Yair can dance around and out point him for a decision as Jeremy follows him around the Octagon for twenty-five minutes? I hope the price gets a few cents better to get back to plus money as it will make my decision easier to bet Stephens even if it's a modest gain in price.
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
I’m flip flopping. I’ve made good money on Stephens then lost a bunch on him vs oldo.

If he can’t beat oldo I’m not sure how he goes against yair.

I do appreciate oldo is more physical than yair though.

I need to rewatch yairs last fight but I thought it was 2-2 going into the fifth. So it wasn’t a blow out up until that point.

Perhaps a not stephens itd if we can get it at a good price.
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Fwiw, fight taking place in Mexico. I read stephens has been training in mexico for a few weeks so the altitude shouldn't be a big issue. But i have to give yair a hometown edge of it goes to cards.
 

bjpenn85

Member
I’m flip flopping. I’ve made good money on Stephens then lost a bunch on him vs oldo.

If he can’t beat oldo I’m not sure how he goes against yair.

I do appreciate oldo is more physical than yair though.

I need to rewatch yairs last fight but I thought it was 2-2 going into the fifth. So it wasn’t a blow out up until that point.

Perhaps a not stephens itd if we can get it at a good price.



IMO Stephans reminds us at least too so some extent of Koreaz Zombie...if that fight went 3 sec more, the judges score cards had him winning. Which means if Stephans is a better version of Korean Zombie, or at the same level, Rodriguez might run into the same problems.

Yairs footwork cost energy, he isnt a good counter puncher, he is vulnerable in terms of if he cant do his thing, get time and place to setup his kicks hes not winning. That happened over time in his last fight, might happen again here. Stephans has good cardio so expect to see stephans gets stronger while yair will slightly be less and less effective over time.

But will the judges give Yair rounds despite stephans winning....maybe, so still a fight who can end up as a close dec.
 

BT

Active Member
I'm on Yair at a pk just b/c he's the fresher guy, a great natural talent, tough style to deal with, and I feel like Stephens' mileage is bound to catch up to him at some point. Against a young hot shot fighter on his home turf in Yair, I think this could be where we see him start to decline. I love Stephens but I'm in for a cpl units on Yair here.
 

bjpenn85

Member
Reyes got a bad chin and Nelson is powerful, might be on to something. Nelson is as stiff a person can be though. He would have struggled becoming a flamingo dancer 100%. Guy makes robocop look like fluid.

Yair...not the worst pick in the world, siding with stephans.
 

bjpenn85

Member
Paul Craig 2 units at +100
Paul Craig 2 units at +101

Angela Hill to win 2 units at -140

Askar Askarov to win 2 units at -165

Whos best on the ground, Craig or the moreira? I feel like Craig always end up on his back, can he submit the black belt from his back?

Seems like a very close fight, How do you see Craig win?
 

JimGunn

Active Member
Whos best on the ground, Craig or the moreira? I feel like Craig always end up on his back, can he submit the black belt from his back?

Seems like a very close fight, How do you see Craig win?
I think Craig could be the best underdog spot on the card. Craig has way better standup and wrestling and if it stays on the feet he should beat Moreira easy imho. If it goes to the ground I think he ends up on top or gets up. I think his cardio will last longer as well. Moreira is early sub or bust here and I believe Craig will be difficult to submit.
 
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