UFC Title Holder Futures

[JustBleedFan]

Some interesting special props now available to bet at Unibet until 1/18/15 based on who holds the UFC title belts on the last day of 2015. Unfortunately, many of us can't bet there, but thought some of them are interesting. Of course, you're not going to get paid for nearly a year.

Carla Esparza to retain her belt at +235 isn't a bad bet. I like Conor McGregor at +300 too. I don't think +10000 is enough for to wager that Phil "CM Punk" Brooks will hold a UFC belt by 1/31/16 though, lol.

https://www.unibet.com/betting#/group/1000093238/category/8279

 

[ezflyer]

wish i could play these...

 

[marzwoody]

Interesting. might play Khabib.

 

[Skel]

Absolutely insane value on that list.

 

[Will]

Some interesting special props now available to bet at Unibet until 1/18/15 based on who holds the UFC title belts on the last day of 2015. Unfortunately, many of us can't bet there, but thought some of them are interesting. Of course, you're not going to get paid for nearly a year.

Carla Esparza to retain her belt at +235 isn't a bad bet. I like Conor McGregor at +300 too. I don't think +10000 is enough for to wager that Phil "CM Punk" Brooks will hold a UFC belt by 1/31/16 though, lol.

https://www.unibet.com/betting#/group/1000093238/category/8279

Ive got money there if anyone wants to use me as a proxy.

 

[Will]

Ah, Scratch that. I did not realize the money would be tied up for a year.
If there is anything else that pops up at unibet that people want to play that finalizes within a few weeks, I am happy to proxy for you guys.

 

[JustBleedFan]

Absolutely insane value on that list.

Where do you think the value lies? Consider that only two UFC weight classes out of the now ten had a belt change hands in 2014- men's welterweight and bantamweight- and one of those was mostly because GSP vacated his title voluntarily shortly before the year started. Only one UFC belt changed hands in 2014 due to an incumbent champion getting beat which was with TJ Dillashaw defeating Renan Barao. I don't know how likely any one of these belts are to change hands in 2015 other than maybe welterweight again. And probably Conor McGregor too. Especially since there are relatively few title fights happening with all the champion injuries lately. Interim champions don't count for these bets.

 

[marzwoody]

Where do you think the value lies? Consider that only two UFC weight classes out of the now ten had a belt change hands in 2014- men's welterweight and bantamweight- and one of those was mostly because GSP vacated his title voluntarily shortly before the year started. Only one UFC belt changed hands in 2014 due to an incumbent champion getting beat which was with TJ Dillashaw defeating Renan Barao. I don't know how likely any one of these belts are to change hands in 2015 other than maybe welterweight again. Especially since there are relatively few title fights happening with all the champion injuries lately. Interim champions don't count for these bets.

If Khabib gets healthy i really see him taking the belt 2015. i don't think Dos Anjos poses any risks to Pettis that he hasen't dealt with before.

 

[Will]

Luke rockhold + 400
Travis browne +1000
Andre arkloski +50000

Look interesting to me. Your thoughts?

 

[Will]

Jim, Agree, and you have to consider, if your guy who you want to bet on has to have two fights this year ( including the fight for the title ) would you be better off parlaying him on himself with his next fight.

I.e first fight, bet 100 Luke rockhold ( +115 ) vs machida win 115 back
second fight , bet 215 luke rockhold (+175 ) vs weidman win 481

So essentially you are getting +481 odds by parlaying rockhold on himself.

Let me know if i have miscalculated that. Obviously, I am guessing at the openers I could be wrong upwards / downwards.

 

[Will]

Does anyone know if Cain is training atm ?
Is he likely to fight this year ?

 

[ezflyer]

I believe the plan for the UFC is to have cain-werdum headline the next mexico city PPV, and i think that was summer 2015 (but i can't back that up, just what i think is the case)

 

[ezflyer]

Jim, Agree, and you have to consider, if your guy who you want to bet on has to have two fights this year ( including the fight for the title ) would you be better off parlaying him on himself with his next fight.

I.e first fight, bet 100 Luke rockhold ( +115 ) vs machida win 115 back
second fight , bet 215 luke rockhold (+175 ) vs weidman win 481

So essentially you are getting +481 odds by parlaying rockhold on himself.

Let me know if i have miscalculated that. Obviously, I am guessing at the openers I could be wrong upwards / downwards.

that's one way to look at it, i suppose, but i think it takes too many assumptions as fact -- a: the odds are obviously guesses on both would-be fights, but also, even if rockhold wins vs machida... it's not a certainty that he gets the titleshot and/or that he gets it this year (i.e. weidman or belfort win but are out for 12 months afterwards)

 

[Will]

that's one way to look at it, i suppose, but i think it takes too many assumptions as fact -- a: the odds are obviously guesses on both would-be fights, but also, even if rockhold wins vs machida... it's not a certainty that he gets the titleshot and/or that he gets it this year (i.e. weidman or belfort win but are out for 12 months afterwards)

Yes exactly, so that strengthens my point. You would need any even higher odds than you would get from parlaying the fighter against himself to account for the uncertainty as to whether they will even get a title fight within that time period.

What do you cap Connor V Aldo at ?
I think Connor will be +150 ish.

So as Jimm said, Connor might actually be a decent play ( even for hedging purposes ) at +300. As he is guaranteed a title shot.

 

[JustBleedFan]

I'm a sucker for special props, so I'm sure I would play one or more of these small if I could bet at Unibet even with the element of not getting paid for nearly twelve full months. That being said, when you break the numbers down, given the limited amount of title fights in each calendar year in each weight class it would only be a smart bet if one was pretty damn sure- like with Conor McGregor- that the fighter was going to get a title shot in 2015 or if they offered really high odds. It would especially suck if one put a few dollars on one of the longer shots like say Donald Cerrone to hold the Lightweight title on 12/31/15 at +800 or Hector Lombard to hold the Middleweight title on 12/31/15 at +800 and then sometime in November one or both of them gets his shot slotted for January 2016.

 

[ezflyer]

gotcha, will, that makes sense

and yea, jim, that's part of the risk here