UFC on ESPN 6 Reyes vs Weidman

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Havent seen any discussion about the yair fight going from 5 rounds to 3 rounds.

Who do you think benefits more?

Im hoping books screw up on props and maybe copy the odds from the previous fight :D
 

bjpenn85

Member
Anyone like Weidman here? He seems super confident. I am not so sure why.
I think Vicks knock out loss last weekend just add to the already overwhelming evidence of this: If your chin is shot, it is shot.

There are some factors that may occlude the overall picture, some fighters have bad defence, som struggle with weightcut which probably interfere with some neurological deficit which occur with less hydration around the brain. I think if the nervous system shuts down, the patway gets sensitized, youre fucked.

Chris is fucked, but he may still put up a fight and even win rounds, so its a tricky fight, because we cant be 100% sure the KO will happen.
 

JustBleedFan

Active Member
I can see Weidman getting rocked in round 1, barely surviving and recovering enough between rounds to get a takedown or two and finally a submission in round 2 or 3, not unlike the Kelvin Gastelum fight. Only problem is that it's going to be a lot more difficult to survive that early storm at light heavyweight or get or keep takedowns since Reyes is so much bigger. Reyes might have worse takedown and submission defense than Gastelum though, not sure.
 

Mirinquads

Active Member
Staff member
Havent seen any discussion about the yair fight going from 5 rounds to 3 rounds.

Who do you think benefits more?

Im hoping books screw up on props and maybe copy the odds from the previous fight :D
Would imagine Yair
 

bjpenn85

Member
I can see Weidman getting rocked in round 1, barely surviving and recovering enough between rounds to get a takedown or two and finally a submission in round 2 or 3, not unlike the Kelvin Gastelum fight. Only problem is that it's going to be a lot more difficult to survive that early storm at light heavyweight or get or keep takedowns since Reyes is so much bigger. Reyes might have worse takedown and submission defense than Gastelum though, not sure.
I visited fightmetric yesterday, which have Reyes takedown defence at 85% and i thought to myself, people with that type of percentage have rarely let me down in the past. Then i paused for a second, but wait, he hasnt fought any wrestlers at all. Numbers may be infected by lies and deceit.

So i sit down and watch Reyes vs Oezdemir, and while he was never taken down with his back flat against the ground and was also able to wall walk, he was taken down repeatedly and by a better wrestler than fucking oezedemir this may pose some issues. Im defintely not on the Reyes wagon here. Especially also after the performance with Oezdemir in general. Fight was razor close, it shouldnt be if you come in as a favourite against Weidman.
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
Really surprised at the + odds on Darren Stewart here.

Is it because Winn is a Cormier protege? Not sure but its certainly not his performances against lawlor (who came for a payday and was out of shape ) and from what i remember a close fight with late notice spicely.

Or is it people expect Winn to try to exploit Stewarts (lack of) wrestling? Possibly.

This may be a 5u bet for me. I need to watch tape and wait for weigh ins before i go full ham though. I suspect Winn will drop a weight class after this one.
 

bjpenn85

Member
Really surprised at the + odds on Darren Stewart here.

Is it because Winn is a Cormier protege? Not sure but its certainly not his performances against lawlor (who came for a payday and was out of shape ) and from what i remember a close fight with late notice spicely.

Or is it people expect Winn to try to exploit Stewarts (lack of) wrestling? Possibly.

This may be a 5u bet for me. I need to watch tape and wait for weigh ins before i go full ham though. I suspect Winn will drop a weight class after this one.

Stewart looked good against a frightened and gunshy Lewis who just had been knocked out for the first time in his life. He did nothing, which some fighters has a tendency to do after a KO loss. Could mention plenty of names, Ngannou against Lewis looked like a nothing we have ever seen from Ngannou, but after that dreadful performance he suddenly came back to his self again.

My point is that....the KO loss may obscure our view on that Stewarts performance against Bewon Lewis.

Many people made this mistake last weekend after betting Roundtree, forgetting that he had one good performance after a camp in Thailand, but still has no ground game.

So my next point is....either we see a smart Winn which will Cutelaba Stewart, or we have a performance from Stewart which is heavily influenced by a fighter that was scared to death after being KOed. So is he that good on the feet, or did lewis just made him look like a champ?


Winn may still fight like an idiot and get pot shotted from the outside, but he may also employ a gameplane with wrestling, and i do not under any circumstances expect Stewart to have a chance in hell to withstand that wrestling onsluaght. And black explosive fighters, they are weak mentally often when taken down. Listen, i am black, so no race card here please, but yeah.

So as Stewart POTENTIALLY, being worse than we expect, has a really bad ground game going into a fight with a 4 time national champ in wrestling, i will be careful.

But im also open for that my assessment is utterly crap!!
 

Vaughany

Active Member
Havent seen any discussion about the yair fight going from 5 rounds to 3 rounds.

Who do you think benefits more?

Im hoping books screw up on props and maybe copy the odds from the previous fight :D
Yair just cos reduces time that Lil Heathen has to land the bomb and Yair higher output
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Stewart looked good against a frightened and gunshy Lewis who just had been knocked out for the first time in his life. He did nothing, which some fighters has a tendency to do after a KO loss. Could mention plenty of names, Ngannou against Lewis looked like a nothing we have ever seen from Ngannou, but after that dreadful performance he suddenly came back to his self again.

My point is that....the KO loss may obscure our view on that Stewarts performance against Bewon Lewis.

Many people made this mistake last weekend after betting Roundtree, forgetting that he had one good performance after a camp in Thailand, but still has no ground game.

So my next point is....either we see a smart Winn which will Cutelaba Stewart, or we have a performance from Stewart which is heavily influenced by a fighter that was scared to death after being KOed. So is he that good on the feet, or did lewis just made him look like a champ?


Winn may still fight like an idiot and get pot shotted from the outside, but he may also employ a gameplane with wrestling, and i do not under any circumstances expect Stewart to have a chance in hell to withstand that wrestling onsluaght. And black explosive fighters, they are weak mentally often when taken down. Listen, i am black, so no race card here please, but yeah.

So as Stewart POTENTIALLY, being worse than we expect, has a really bad ground game going into a fight with a 4 time national champ in wrestling, i will be careful.

But im also open for that my assessment is utterly crap!!
So much good stuff in this post. I certainly made that mistake last week with rountree.

Winn's PTV is so clear he would be a moron not to employ a takedown heavy gameplan. If he wrestles, he should be -200 here, easy, imo.
 

bjpenn85

Member
So much good stuff in this post. I certainly made that mistake last week with rountree.

Winn's PTV is so clear he would be a moron not to employ a takedown heavy gameplan. If he wrestles, he should be -200 here, easy, imo.
I feel like i have no clue of what Winn wants. We wanted Brandon Davis to fight smart but he couldnt. He is very unintelligent fighter, so he may be an outlier.

I just dont trust a guy that is sooooo good at that one thing, and not willing to use it. Which is so inexperienced and hasnt really faced the consequences of making mistakes, like having 0 gameplan and just going in and brawl. That i havent seen wrestling, i mean, maybe he has horrible top control and cant hold stewart down.

I say the fight is not suitable for betting. X-factors are all over the place. This fight is messy. Its a 50/50 fight, can go both ways. I think Stewart at +150 is ok..not like super duper good price, but you should get prettyy....pretyyy ....prettyyy....compensated for a guy that sucks on the ground against an olympic caliber grappler, thats the least they can do lol.
 
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