I think Vicks knock out loss last weekend just add to the already overwhelming evidence of this: If your chin is shot, it is shot.Anyone like Weidman here? He seems super confident. I am not so sure why.
I visited fightmetric yesterday, which have Reyes takedown defence at 85% and i thought to myself, people with that type of percentage have rarely let me down in the past. Then i paused for a second, but wait, he hasnt fought any wrestlers at all. Numbers may be infected by lies and deceit.I can see Weidman getting rocked in round 1, barely surviving and recovering enough between rounds to get a takedown or two and finally a submission in round 2 or 3, not unlike the Kelvin Gastelum fight. Only problem is that it's going to be a lot more difficult to survive that early storm at light heavyweight or get or keep takedowns since Reyes is so much bigger. Reyes might have worse takedown and submission defense than Gastelum though, not sure.
Really surprised at the + odds on Darren Stewart here.
Is it because Winn is a Cormier protege? Not sure but its certainly not his performances against lawlor (who came for a payday and was out of shape ) and from what i remember a close fight with late notice spicely.
Or is it people expect Winn to try to exploit Stewarts (lack of) wrestling? Possibly.
This may be a 5u bet for me. I need to watch tape and wait for weigh ins before i go full ham though. I suspect Winn will drop a weight class after this one.
Yair just cos reduces time that Lil Heathen has to land the bomb and Yair higher outputHavent seen any discussion about the yair fight going from 5 rounds to 3 rounds.
Who do you think benefits more?
Im hoping books screw up on props and maybe copy the odds from the previous fight
So much good stuff in this post. I certainly made that mistake last week with rountree.Stewart looked good against a frightened and gunshy Lewis who just had been knocked out for the first time in his life. He did nothing, which some fighters has a tendency to do after a KO loss. Could mention plenty of names, Ngannou against Lewis looked like a nothing we have ever seen from Ngannou, but after that dreadful performance he suddenly came back to his self again.
My point is that....the KO loss may obscure our view on that Stewarts performance against Bewon Lewis.
Many people made this mistake last weekend after betting Roundtree, forgetting that he had one good performance after a camp in Thailand, but still has no ground game.
So my next point is....either we see a smart Winn which will Cutelaba Stewart, or we have a performance from Stewart which is heavily influenced by a fighter that was scared to death after being KOed. So is he that good on the feet, or did lewis just made him look like a champ?
Winn may still fight like an idiot and get pot shotted from the outside, but he may also employ a gameplane with wrestling, and i do not under any circumstances expect Stewart to have a chance in hell to withstand that wrestling onsluaght. And black explosive fighters, they are weak mentally often when taken down. Listen, i am black, so no race card here please, but yeah.
So as Stewart POTENTIALLY, being worse than we expect, has a really bad ground game going into a fight with a 4 time national champ in wrestling, i will be careful.
But im also open for that my assessment is utterly crap!!
I feel like i have no clue of what Winn wants. We wanted Brandon Davis to fight smart but he couldnt. He is very unintelligent fighter, so he may be an outlier.So much good stuff in this post. I certainly made that mistake last week with rountree.
Winn's PTV is so clear he would be a moron not to employ a takedown heavy gameplan. If he wrestles, he should be -200 here, easy, imo.