UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs Korean Zombie

JustBleedFan

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Mirinquads

Active Member
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Liked Zombie at near evens, but line is ridiculous. Ortegas boxing didn't look half bad against Max, clear improvements there and ofcourse still venomous on the ground.
 

Will

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Why is Andrade going up in weight? Its not like she has gas problems at the lower weight. Or was overly big at that weight. Medical reasons? Poor training camp?

Screams pass imho (but i likely wont). I need to watch tape but my first thought was Andre, Chook has sub par TDD ( joanne took her down 3 times ) and andrade goes for takedowns, doesnt gas. Chook has never subbed anyone before in the ufc. So i dont see why andrade wouldnt implement a TD game.

But then, chook is going to tower over andrade 5'9 vs 5'1.

Comes down to wether the move up is temporary or not, If its a permanent move, i may play Andrade. If its a once off. I will pass or play chook. That's my angle.
 

lucky

Active Member
Why is Andrade going up in weight? Its not like she has gas problems at the lower weight. Or was overly big at that weight. Medical reasons? Poor training camp?

Screams pass imho (but i likely wont). I need to watch tape but my first thought was Andre, Chook has sub par TDD ( joanne took her down 3 times ) and andrade goes for takedowns, doesnt gas. Chook has never subbed anyone before in the ufc. So i dont see why andrade wouldnt implement a TD game.

But then, chook is going to tower over andrade 5'9 vs 5'1.

Comes down to wether the move up is temporary or not, If its a permanent move, i may play Andrade. If its a once off. I will pass or play chook. That's my angle.
No play for me yet. Andrade did fight at bantamweight for few years. She looked better than I expected vs Rose. As I bet against her and got lucky imo
 

TheCalculator

Active Member
This matters. I was stalking andrade instagram the other day. Looking for something to illicit a bet. She looks plump in the photos i saw. Will wait for weigh ins.
Is she “pleasantly plump”? I still find that the most hilarious way to call someone fat
 

Will

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Can John Phillips stuff a take down ? His UFC record says no but he has had some rough match ups in the UFC and trains out of straight blast gym so should have access to various training partners. I think john wins the striking match on the feet.

Anyone familiar with phillips background before the ufc. Have you ever seen him stuff a takedown before ? ;) haha.
 
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Will

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Some tape notes on Park Vs Phillips

Park
* Last win was in hometown of Korea. Performance boost that he will not have this time around.
* Lost against hernandez who i do not rate at all ( although he was winning the fight and got caught in a sub )
* Scores take downs but can not keep people down
* Has not gone for subs in his UFC career. Even when he had position to do so
* Take down heavy game tired him and he abandoned it in rd 3 against marc

Phillips
* 35. Getting old.
* Was scrambling out of bad positions somewhat decently against holland in 3rd round
* Iron chin. Takes striking punishment well
* Appears to have very poor take down defense
* Kept power throughout fights but pace did slow
* Has fought in Dubai before.
* Southpaw
* Reputable training camp (SBG)
* Last to weigh in. Didnt look great. ( Never looks great though )


Conclusion :-
Park's key to victory here is take downs as this fight will be competitive on feet and may even favour Phillips. Park should take phillips down but Phillips should be able to return to his feet and wether the damage.
If Park fights like he has in his ufc fights ( i.e no subs ) i do not see how he stops Phillips with strikes. Phillips took an immense amount of punishment from Chimeav and Chim still had to stop him with a sub.

If the travel and odd fight time affects Park which causes him to tire sooner than he did against Marc. This could be an interesting live betting spot. Also if Phillips stuffs some take downs early (i dont think he will), i would make a play on him live.


Suggested Ways to Play this fight:-
Park NITD -145
Phillips No Score Cards +175
Phillips KO Rd 3 +3300
Park Desc +245

Felt like i did alot of tape watching for nought. There are plenty of reasons for this fight to be a pass and i would feel more comfortable if phillips was a few years younger. Will most likely play Park NITD small just so i didnt watch all this tape for nothing ;)
 

JustBleedFan

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This is a really obvious play but considering the fact that Korean Zombie has hardly ever gone to a decision in his entire MMA career and the same for Brian Ortega and the fact that the under 2½ is slightly favored around -115, doesn't that mean FDNGTD is underpriced if anything in the mid -200s? I know it's still chalky to make a big bet at -240 or -250 or so, but given their style and history I can't help but think this is a very likely outcome. Would be pretty surprising if these two go the distance for the first time in the UFC with each other of all people.
 

Will

Administrator
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This is a really obvious play but considering the fact that Korean Zombie has hardly ever gone to a decision in his entire MMA career and the same for Brian Ortega and the fact that the under 2½ is slightly favored around -115, doesn't that mean FDNGTD is underpriced if anything in the mid -200s? I know it's still chalky to make a big bet at -240 or -250 or so, but given their style and history I can't help but think this is a very likely outcome. Would be pretty surprising if these two go the distance for the first time in the UFC with each other of all people.

It shouldnt go the distance but thats why its priced the way its priced ;)

Implied probabiltiy at -250 suggests 71% of the time it doesnt go the distance. For you to bet this at all, you would need to think 80% of the time it doesnt gtd. For you to bet it BIG you would have to think 90% of the time it doesnt go the distance.

I dont think this doesnt go the distance 90% of the time. They both can take alot of damage and alot of their fights go long even if they do finish.

You may be better off playing

TCity sub
Both fighters Rd 4
Both Fighters Rd 5

Thats my 2 cents.
 
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