UFC 241 Cormier vs Miocic II

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Not loving the play as much. Although i was always planning to hedge on costa be tko.

Do u see costa taking a decision under any likely scenario?
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
I haven’t watched tape yet but I saw the odds moving so locked in some costa @+165.

Have you seen Yoel recently? Rob broke his orbital in that last fight and his face has healed a little weird.

Yes, i could see Costa taking a decision. Yoel can take a beating.

Despite the muscles, Costa hasn’t yet shown to slow down and Yoel can give away rounds. Chris Weidman was on his way to taking a decision away from Yoel and that fight was mostly on its feet.

In saying that, Yoel is by far the best wrestler Costa has faced. This bet is all about can Yoel take Costa down each round and keep him down. So I’m gambling at +odds.
 
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punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Also have to wonder how motivated is yoel after winning that 20-something million dollar settlement.
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
I am planning on playing Pettis, Do i lock it in now or wait in case Diaz money comes in and pushes it closer to evens?
I think Pettis leg kicks Diaz into next year, just like RDA did. I will have some compulsory Diaz Rd 3 hedge and maybe a sprinkle on the draw.
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Did u guys see the diaz interview with okamoto? Homie did not look or sound good. Sounded much worse than the usual stockton slur. I fucked up waiting for plus odds on pettis and the line moved the other way. Locked in 1.5u because i think this should close around -200. Will add more if I'm wrong and the odds improve.
 

omalley21

Active Member
Definitely on pettis. But seemed like standard nonsensical diaz rambling to me and still hoping the square diaz money comes in.
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Lol maybe i haven't heard him in a while, but it just sounded much worse to me. I can usually get a grasp on what he's trying to say, but had no idea in most of this interview.
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Speaking of the sharp money, sharps defo on costa here. I dont get it. Also dont like being on the other side.

Planned to hedge some on costa tko, but its looking like tko wont be much better than current ml.
 

mmaed

Member
Speaking of the sharp money, sharps defo on costa here. I dont get it. Also dont like being on the other side.

Planned to hedge some on costa tko, but its looking like tko wont be much better than current ml.
Hall and Bamgbose both took him down. Yoel should be able to if he actually attempts it. The striking part is something I’m a little iffy about. Costa is pretty scary on the feet, so far at least. Yoel has excellent timing and a lot of power. I could easily see him starching Costa if Costa fights in his normal way. Yoel’s chin can take a beating as well. I think this matchup is pretty bad for Costa.
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
Hall and Bamgbose both took him down. Yoel should be able to if he actually attempts it. The striking part is something I’m a little iffy about. Costa is pretty scary on the feet, so far at least. Yoel has excellent timing and a lot of power. I could easily see him starching Costa if Costa fights in his normal way. Yoel’s chin can take a beating as well. I think this matchup is pretty bad for Costa.
Agreed. People are crediting costa with great tdd bc of his 80% stoppage rate, but he hasnt faced any good wrestlers. Only a much undersized hendricks. The question is whether yoel is going to use offensive wrestling. Such an easy path to victory if he chooses to use it.
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
Rewatched stipe vs Cormier last night.
Fight goes a lot longer than I remembered.

Stipe was not taking cormiers blows well the entire fight. His face was already getting banged up.

What does stipe do differently ? What can he do differently ?

Not often I flip flop to the other side totally but this is one of those times.

My only thought is we have seen Cormier slow down against jones weight in the first fight.
That could potentially happen here but hedging ops after rd 2 should be there.
 

mmaed

Member
Agreed. People are crediting costa with great tdd bc of his 80% stoppage rate, but he hasnt faced any good wrestlers. Only a much undersized hendricks. The question is whether yoel is going to use offensive wrestling. Such an easy path to victory if he chooses to use it.
Yeah, if he uses it. That’s the question. One thing of note about him not using it much: he’s generally been facing guys with great takedown defense, whether they were formally credentialed wrestlers or guys like Whittaker. Costa doesn’t really seem to have great takedown defense and his style his conducive to being taken down(constantly moving forward throwing bombs that (I would think) require planting your feet in order to generate the kind of power he generates. I think there are two questions. How does Costa modify that style? Second, does Yoel take advantage of those deficiencies in wrestling does he do what he has had so much success with in the past? It’s a really hard call in my opinion but given the strengths and weaknesses the matchup clearly favors Yoel. I think that justifies a bet on Yoel.
 
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