ufc 192 - DC vs gus

ezflyer

Active Member
 

ezflyer

Active Member
definitely liking bader and twood as dogs here. gus, maybe, too. have some on all 3 (tho very small on gus atm, and via decision)
 

ezflyer

Active Member

Sky

Member
Cormier itd maybe then. I not really sure ATM, but I just remember Cormier came in with a short camp against aj and still crushed him.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
I don't know if he's better everywhere. Even if he is, its CLOSE in all areas. Close enough that it merits a dog play. Shit happens in a fight... I think twood is more explosive, too.
 

TheCalculator

Active Member
POUNDING DOGS HARD.

4 units on Gus -- analysis below
2 units on Bader
1 units on Woodley (may add another)
1 unit on Baugotinov.
Parlayed that shit every which way from Sunday.

Gus vs. DC

The current line is based on MMA math Cormier > Rumble > Gus.

Gus got caught -- it happens.

This fight really favors Gus for a few reasons. Gus is FAST and circles relentlessly. It will be hard for DC to get the takedowns. I expect DC will win r1 and maybe r2. I expect DC to fade and Gus to shine as the rounds go on. Gus's jab should be the story of this fight. Gus by decision. Can't believe we're getting +300???
 

mmaed

Member
POUNDING DOGS HARD.

4 units on Gus -- analysis below
2 units on Bader
1 units on Woodley (may add another)
1 unit on Baugotinov.
Parlayed that shit every which way from Sunday.

Gus vs. DC

The current line is based on MMA math Cormier > Rumble > Gus.

Gus got caught -- it happens.

This fight really favors Gus for a few reasons. Gus is FAST and circles relentlessly. It will be hard for DC to get the takedowns. I expect DC will win r1 and maybe r2. I expect DC to fade and Gus to shine as the rounds go on. Gus's jab should be the story of this fight. Gus by decision. Can't believe we're getting +300???
I agree with your Gus analysis. I'm not sure what to think of Baug vs JoeB. I think it could be very close and I wonder what Baug will look like at this point, after steroids and a long layoff. Both Baug's and Woodleys lines are pretty decent but I would consider each by decision over the ML. I really doubt Baug tko's Joe and he has a slim chance of submitting him. If you think he wins, dec at +600 is probably a much better option. Woodley isn't likely to sub Hendricks anytime soon, maybe a R1 Ko, possibly R2, definitely not R3. I would probably play him by decision if I were to play him at all.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
yea idk on ali B. but w/you on the others (tho less confident in gus play than you)
 

Napes21

Active Member
I initially bet Rashad based on how I was capping the fight and their talent levels. Now I've dug in a little more and forgot how shabby Rashad looked against Lil Nog before going to a split with Hendo and running thru Chael - and that was before his break and proceeding pie-eating contests he's undertaken. I'm now concerned about my Rashad plays - haven't bought out yet though.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Well he has been improving every fight while Rashad hasen't fought in 2 years.
i think that falls under the 'unknowns' bit -- but honestly, outside of the sonnen fight (where sonnen clearly had a foot out the door, we now know, and was outsized) -- he hasn't looked good in years. bad fight with hendo, TERRIBLE fight w/lilnog... he's not this elite guy who should be favored over bader
 

marzwoody

Active Member
i think that falls under the 'unknowns' bit -- but honestly, outside of the sonnen fight (where sonnen clearly had a foot out the door, we now know, and was outsized) -- he hasn't looked good in years. bad fight with hendo, TERRIBLE fight w/lilnog... he's not this elite guy who should be favored over bader
Yes true also he's alway's had mental issues where his heads not quite right etc. who knows what he will look like. but Bader is the play for me.
 

Bava

Member
i think that falls under the 'unknowns' bit -- but honestly, outside of the sonnen fight (where sonnen clearly had a foot out the door, we now know, and was outsized) -- he hasn't looked good in years. bad fight with hendo, TERRIBLE fight w/lilnog... he's not this elite guy who should be favored over bader
That's all accurate, I just haven't seen anything from Bader (ever, but particularly in the same sample number of fights) that would suggest he could beat even the declining version of Rashad (the Nog fight was god-awful though). Unless he's finished as a fighter, Rashad should be quicker and busier in a long boring standup fight. I should re-watch Bader's fight with Davis because it'll likely play out in similar fashion, but re-watching any Phil Davis fight feels like a cosmic waste of time...
 
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