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- Thread starter ezflyer
- Start date

day 1:

1.725u coric-nadal O35 -115

0.54u tsonga-nieminen O32 -108

1.13u verdasco-haas O36.5 -113

1.17u fognini +5 -117

1.05u cuevas +1.5 -1.05

thought about doing ebden +8, paire +7.5, seppi -2.5sets, goffin -5.5 or -1.5 sets, but have enough already for day 1 and these would be 0.5u plays if i even did any.

any ML bets, you should do 5d, not elsewhere. cause 5d will honor the bet if a set is completed. (it's so frustrating when the other dude quits and you don't get paid). spreads, o/u's, etc are voided everywhere. even if it's like in the 5th set and you already covered the over, it gets voided.

and for my plays, the +/- is always games unless i specify sets. (i.e. cuevas line is +1.5 sets and +1.5 games, obviously different price, but you get the idea)

good start on day 1, gents, hopefully it rolls into tomorrow

my "notable omissions" above went 3-0-1, wish i did them all, haha

day 2:

1.03u becker-istomin O35.5 -103

1.07u melzer +4.5 -107

1.07u kokkinakis-gasquet O35.0 -107

0.575u mayer +8.5 -115

today's chopping block omissions:

duckworth +5, ward +5.5, kohl -3.5 or -1.5 sets, rosol -4 or -1.5 sets.

if they fix the line (which they probably won't do unless someone tells them), i might do rosol -1.5 sets. it's listed as +1.5 sets right now, which is a clear mistake. i don't bet mistake lines like this. i like having accounts

I'm so bad at the math side of this it's embarrsing.. Gonna have to read up on it as soon as possible!

I'm BIG on Serena winning the whole thing.

yep. i swear i'll stop if someone dares complain if we have a bad day, tho, haha

Promise i wont complain if you keep winning.

You keep up your end of the deal, i will keep mine.

I have no idea how much each point is worth, but I have to assume +4.5 -107 is better.

On Pinny Melzer +3.5 is +119 and +4.5 is -106. There are key numbers that are worth more (Like the NFL with -3 and -7) but they are more important in best of 3 sets matches where as the US Open is a major so it is best of 5 sets.

I'm so bad at the math side of this it's embarrsing.. Gonna have to read up on it as soon as possible!

Not even close, +4.5 loads betterI have no idea how much each point is worth, but I have to assume +4.5 -107 is better.

Remember, tennis is scored differently than just about any sport. Every time the ball is in play, SOMEONE scores. As such, for example, djokovic might beat a bum 6-1 6-1 6-1, but he can beat a quality player by the exact same score. The average strokes per rally might be higher, but the end score ends up the same.

Conversely, a guy like isner is going to have close matches with both elite players and bums alike, because he's so hard to break and he has a shit return game.

I'll elaborate more later

how do you find the alternate spreads on pinny?On Pinny Melzer +3.5 is +119 and +4.5 is -106. There are key numbers that are worth more (Like the NFL with -3 and -7) but they are more important in best of 3 sets matches where as the US Open is a major so it is best of 5 sets.

based on those #s, it seems a half game is worth about 12.5 cents. obviously the value will be different depending on the particular matchup and the number (as you mentioned, certain numbers are worth more than others), but you can probably use 12.5c as a rough estimate.

easier method would be to compare with the pinny #s, but i cant find the alternate spread for the life of me.

On Pinny Melzer +3.5 is +119 and +4.5 is -106. There are key numbers that are worth more (Like the NFL with -3 and -7) but they are more important in best of 3 sets matches where as the US Open is a major so it is best of 5 sets.

Yes, it isn't as strict as 3, 7, 10, 14 etc in football, but there are important standard differential hurdles. Moreso, o/u spots. I.e. in best of 3, 19/20 and 22/23 are hugely important #'s for o/u

Men's tennis comes down to break differential. Women's tennis, to me, is a fucking crapshoot.

There's a dropdown menu for the different spreads. You can also click on a matchup on flashscore.com/tennishow do you find the alternate spreads on pinny?

based on those #s, it seems a half game is worth about 12.5 cents. obviously the value will be different depending on the particular matchup and the number (as you mentioned, certain numbers are worth more than others), but you can probably use 12.5c as a rough estimate.

easier method would be to compare with the pinny #s, but i cant find the alternate spread for the life of me.

A popup will come up, then click on odds comparison and then AH (Asian Handicap) it lists all the available spreads at many different sites.