Predicting line movement/timing wagers

matthew

Member
Hi all,

First post, stoked I found this forum.

Question/discussion: How do you predict line movements? Or is there a rule(or rules) of thumb as to when to place bets to maximize profit? Or trends and patterns in line movement you're noticed?

A little background... Been betting on MMA for around 5 years. Lost more than I'd care to admit but have been positive the last 2 years. Feel like I'm getting better at picking and capping, but its certainly taken effort.

I recently added a column in my spreadsheet to track the optimum odds I could have bet vs the odds I did bet and, as I expected, there is a substantial gap.

Still working on data entry for the last few years, but an initial glance shows I could potentially up my profits by say 26 percent with better timing of placing wagers.

Thoughts?
 

matthew

Member
And a quick real life example Barboza v Melendez lines are up. My hunch is that Barboza will see some action since he's coming off a win against a popular fighter in Pettis and he's 'exciting', while Melendez is coming off a loss and can be perceived as more 'boring.' So I'm tempted to say I should hit Barboza now or wait a bit if I wanted to hit Gil.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Hi all,

First post, stoked I found this forum.

Question/discussion: How do you predict line movements? Or is there a rule(or rules) of thumb as to when to place bets to maximize profit? Or trends and patterns in line movement you're noticed?

A little background... Been betting on MMA for around 5 years. Lost more than I'd care to admit but have been positive the last 2 years. Feel like I'm getting better at picking and capping, but its certainly taken effort.

I recently added a column in my spreadsheet to track the optimum odds I could have bet vs the odds I did bet and, as I expected, there is a substantial gap.

Still working on data entry for the last few years, but an initial glance shows I could potentially up my profits by say 26 percent with better timing of placing wagers.

Thoughts?

absolutely, i and others bet on line movement.. but you don't wanna do it exclusively for arb'ing purposes unless you're certain.

very cool idea a bout optimum odds, i might integrate that into my own. need to set a rule on it, though, like, you can't possibly get random spikes at random hours, but some sort of average top line could be more accurate for future betting plans?
 

ezflyer

Active Member
And a quick real life example Barboza v Melendez lines are up. My hunch is that Barboza will see some action since he's coming off a win against a popular fighter in Pettis and he's 'exciting', while Melendez is coming off a loss and can be perceived as more 'boring.' So I'm tempted to say I should hit Barboza now or wait a bit if I wanted to hit Gil.

my gut was that melendez would be bet and we'd see barboza -200 (from the opener of -265 barb) -- i'm aware he dropped to -210 already so i'm saying this after it happened, but it was my gut.

what you're saying is true, but melendez still has a lot of support; he's been a top guy for longer and isn't the type of guy you ever really see hover +200 or better. barboza has his own flaws, too, tho seems to be peaking whereas gil is probably on the decline
 

matthew

Member
absolutely, i and others bet on line movement.. but you don't wanna do it exclusively for arb'ing purposes unless you're certain.

I was thinking more general purpose, not arb'ing necessarily. I'm in a hyper-evaluating mode right now after getting my ass handed to me on the last big fight weekend.

very cool idea a bout optimum odds, i might integrate that into my own. need to set a rule on it, though, like, you can't possibly get random spikes at random hours, but some sort of average top line could be more accurate for future betting plans?

Excellent thought. I hadn't considered random spikes.

I was looking at the optimum odds as a target and trying to figure out a strategy to get closer to that target. Looking at my #'s again even if I was only able to grab better odds 50% of the time I still would have (with random spikes) been able to add 5 or so units. Not through better capping or better picks, but simply through better bet timing. I figured that could be worth some time trying to figure out how to get better at it.
 

matthew

Member
my gut was that melendez would be bet and we'd see barboza -200 (from the opener of -265 barb) -- i'm aware he dropped to -210 already so i'm saying this after it happened, but it was my gut.

Perfect. Exactly why I made this post. My gut told me the opposite, so I figure I've got some room to improve here.

what you're saying is true, but melendez still has a lot of support; he's been a top guy for longer and isn't the type of guy you ever really see hover +200 or better. barboza has his own flaws, too, tho seems to be peaking whereas gil is probably on the decline

So to dig a bit deeper, could we use this to come up with a hypothesis of some sort that could be tested going forward? Just throwing it out there as a wild example but lets say "A veteran, who's popular among hardcores, tends to get bet as a medium dog." i.e. wait to bet might be the smart play?

I haven't capped the fight myself yet, been too busy to dig in, but just strictly thinking of line movements.
 

matthew

Member

Glad to be here. Thoughts on the topic? Anything, even if it's crazy?

I read somewhere that the most common NFL bet is for the favorite in nationally televised games. No idea if that's true or not, but is there a similar pattern in MMA? Does the favorite in a championship main event fight on a PPV generally see the most action?
 

TheCalculator

Active Member
Welcome.

This is a great question/topic with no easy answers.

I think the initial line movement is largely shaped by sharp MMA bettors like us. After the lines settle, 2 angles I look at is:

1. Fan love/hype/casual bettors

Usually this will push the lines towards the "hyped" ones.

2. Weigh ins

How people look largely influences the lines.
 

mmaed

Member
Welcome.

This is a great question/topic with no easy answers.

I think the initial line movement is largely shaped by sharp MMA bettors like us. After the lines settle, 2 angles I look at is:

1. Fan love/hype/casual bettors

Usually this will push the lines towards the "hyped" ones.

2. Weigh ins

How people look largely influences the lines.
Agreed.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
I was thinking more general purpose, not arb'ing necessarily. I'm in a hyper-evaluating mode right now after getting my ass handed to me on the last big fight weekend.



Excellent thought. I hadn't considered random spikes.

I was looking at the optimum odds as a target and trying to figure out a strategy to get closer to that target. Looking at my #'s again even if I was only able to grab better odds 50% of the time I still would have (with random spikes) been able to add 5 or so units. Not through better capping or better picks, but simply through better bet timing. I figured that could be worth some time trying to figure out how to get better at it.

Closing odds and/or opening odds might br interesting to analyze
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Perfect. Exactly why I made this post. My gut told me the opposite, so I figure I've got some room to improve here.



So to dig a bit deeper, could we use this to come up with a hypothesis of some sort that could be tested going forward? Just throwing it out there as a wild example but lets say "A veteran, who's popular among hardcores, tends to get bet as a medium dog." i.e. wait to bet might be the smart play?

I haven't capped the fight myself yet, been too busy to dig in, but just strictly thinking of line movements.

Im not sure if there's much of a ruleset you can place on this sort of thing.. you have to factor in so many things on each fight. Matchups.. trends.. in addition to the typical betting support a fighter gets
 

JustBleedFan

Moderator
Staff member
With practice and experience one can definitely get better at prediciting line movement, at least most of the time. I watch the line movement graphs on BFO closely and I can say I've been spot on predicting the line movement on a lot of fights lately by either jumping on a peak opener or waiting and betting at a later peak a day or two after the opener or betting at the last minute and getting the best price possible one way or another. Unfortunately, getting the peak or best price doesn't matter much if you pick the wrong side which has happened a lot lately.
 

matthew

Member
I've been spot on predicting the line movement on a lot of fights lately by either jumping on a peak opener or waiting and betting at a later peak a day or two after the opener or betting at the last minute and getting the best price possible one way or another.

Out of the 40 bets I looked at, I bet 6 of them at the best possible odds. But it was a happy accident on my part, no skill there at all.

Unfortunately, getting the peak or best price doesn't matter much if you pick the wrong side which has happened a lot lately.

QFT. I took a beating live betting Nelson/Lewis. Also went way too heavy on Alvarez by DEC. Optimum odds or not.
 

matthew

Member
I meant this thread to be more about general strategy, but since I'm doing an analysis of the last event... Lost 2-3 units. It looks like with some better timing I could have potentially taken a bite out of my losses. Again, not different bets or different capping, simply better timing on the bets I did place.

2 that stand out, there were others I 'could have' hit at better prices but with lots of randomness in the lines:

DEC O6.5 +155
could have gotten this at +196 @ open or +175 @ close. I knew I was placing this wager 2 days before the line was released, unless there was insane juice. Didn't hesitate for any reason other than 'just didn't get around to it. The lines for O5.5 through O9.5 were all 'U' shaped meaning the optimum odds were near open and near close. I may be keeping an eye on future event prop lines and see if this is any kind of pattern.

Herrig -110
opened at -130 closed at +125. Looking at the line it seems weigh-ins may have caused her to go from a slight fav to a dog. What happened here? I thought she looked good and I would have expected the opposite.

Aiming to make better decisions going forward.
 

TheCalculator

Active Member
People misread Herrig at the weigh in. That was One of the most ripped jacked physiques we've ever seen in wmma. I think it weirded people out. I doubled down.
 

Vaughany

Active Member
I think it was more people just thinking Curran is a ''hot prospect'' - when in fact she is just an extremely raw talent
 

ezflyer

Active Member
I meant this thread to be more about general strategy, but since I'm doing an analysis of the last event... Lost 2-3 units. It looks like with some better timing I could have potentially taken a bite out of my losses. Again, not different bets or different capping, simply better timing on the bets I did place.

2 that stand out, there were others I 'could have' hit at better prices but with lots of randomness in the lines:

DEC O6.5 +155
could have gotten this at +196 @ open or +175 @ close. I knew I was placing this wager 2 days before the line was released, unless there was insane juice. Didn't hesitate for any reason other than 'just didn't get around to it. The lines for O5.5 through O9.5 were all 'U' shaped meaning the optimum odds were near open and near close. I may be keeping an eye on future event prop lines and see if this is any kind of pattern.

Herrig -110
opened at -130 closed at +125. Looking at the line it seems weigh-ins may have caused her to go from a slight fav to a dog. What happened here? I thought she looked good and I would have expected the opposite.

Aiming to make better decisions going forward.

Event props like "over decisions" generally don't get a Ton of action.. typically they don't shift all that much.

As for herrig, Curran got bet hard just before the fight IIRC
 

Mirinquads

Active Member
Staff member
It can be beneficial to look at what touts bet too. We have seen massive line movement on these behalves, last really significant one was Jason Saggo vs Leandro Silva, moved from around -200ish to -140 as most touts was on Silva.

Sometimes it pays to wait til late, as there will often be line movement when whales come in on a particular line, and obviously weigh in shenanigans.
 

TheCalculator

Active Member
It can be beneficial to look at what touts bet too. We have seen massive line movement on these behalves, last really significant one was Jason Saggo vs Leandro Silva, moved from around -200ish to -140 as most touts was on Silva.

Sometimes it pays to wait til late, as there will often be line movement when whales come in on a particular line, and obviously weigh in shenanigans.

This is another definite angle. Best way to play this would be to subscribe to their services.
 
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