Kelly Betting - I like gimmicks

[Will]

This thread is to explore the mechanics of Kelly but also to follow my journey of Kelly.

Starting Kelly Bank Roll $400
Utilizing Fully Kelly
Using this calculator - http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/online-calculators/kelly-criterion-calculator/

Question A - Do you / Can you / Should you use Kelly on props ?
Question B - How often do you adjust your Kelly bank roll ?

 

[lucky]

Yes. Always

 

[lucky]

If betting kelly on sports I suggest being very conservative when capping the odds. I would not trust markets to give you true odds of outcome.

Was designed for blackjack I believe. Used when u mathematically know exact odds

 

[Will]

Yes. Always

What about B)

 

[punisherind]

What about B)

Might want to double check, i believe proper kelly staking requires asjusting unit size after every graded wager.

 

[lucky]

Yep. Always adjusting

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/kelly-calculator/

 

[Will]

Till Vs Gastelum (IMHO).



Bet 1 - Till $51 @ 3.2

 

[lucky]

Thats a bigger edge than I typically have.
I would be more conservative in my capping of fights. Big edges like that certainly occur at times. But I cap this one around -200. I took some Gastelum -160 and -170. And then Til at +238 and +230

I like to use a range bigger than the juice books charge. This fight was -175 to -225 for me. Sometimes even wider range

 

[Will]

Starting Bank - $400
Current Bank - $512

 

[Will]

Bet 2 #-






Mundine $166.4 @ 1.8

Fwiw, i mentioned this before in the general sports betting thread but i really like this bet. I love JWP as a person but his body is done. He has been very open ( for some time ) about the fact his body just doesnt work any more. He hasnt boxed in 16 years, the last time he boxed mundine, mundine pieced him up.

Added to that this is officially his last fight. I just dont see many paths to victory here for JWP.

Its true Mundine's chin is shot and has never been good which is why i have this rated 70% as opposed to 90% but i dont believe JWP can take advantage of that. These odds are off.

 

[JustBleedFan]

Bet 2 #-

View attachment 953


View attachment 954

Mundine $166.4 @ 1.8

Fwiw, i mentioned this before in the general sports betting thread but i really like this bet. I love JWP as a person but his body is done. He has been very open ( for some time ) about the fact his body just doesnt work any more. He hasnt boxed in 16 years, the last time he boxed mundine, mundine pieced him up.

Added to that this is officially his last fight. I just dont see many paths to victory here for JWP.

Its true Mundine's chin is shot and has never been good which is why i have this rated 70% as opposed to 90% but i dont believe JWP can take advantage of that. These odds are off.

I know who both these guys are, but this is more of a Aussie interest bout. Hope we get odds in North America. I don't see it even listed on ProBoxingOdds.com.

 

[Will]

Current Bank - $345.6

 

[Will]

Bet #3 Ben Saunders



Saunders $66.62