Kelly and NSC wagers

matthew

Member
How do you run a 'scorecards = no action' wager through a Kelly calculator? Is it incompatible?
 

Chris M

Member
instead of win probability use: win proabability/(1-push probability)

but best to confirm with nunya first
This is correct. In this case, "win prob" equals one fighter's chance of winning ITD ("push prob" is obviously the chance the fight goes to decision). So for example, say we have two fighters, lkelihood of fighter A winning ITD is 35%, likelihood of fighter B winning ITD is 10%, and the likelihood the fight goes to decision is 55%. True NSC line for each fighter is:
Fighter A = 0.35/(1-0.55) = 0.7778 = -350
Fighter B = 0.10/(1-0.55) = 0.2222 = +350
 
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