Sorry, by "High value wager" I meant wagers in which you calculate your edge as being large.What do you mean by "high value wagers"? You mean different bets? I don't suspect we'll see as many bets offered there as we get on other books, just because I don't think the liquidity will be there to support it. I think we'll be looking at over/unders and MLs for the most part.
You're talking about fair line on a h2h match up between the players? If you assume the total bases projection for each of the two players are independent events, then I believe poisson can be used. Looking at the poisson calculator for two variables on SBR, using expectations of 1.5 and 2, with a spread of zero, this yields push prob (.2162) and win probs for each side (.2903 & .4936). With these figures, I think fair line is simply .4936/(1-.2162) = .6298 = -170.13 / +170.13@NunyaBidness or anybody. should I be using Poisson calculator on total bases props? If player A averages 1.5 per gm and player B 2; then what would be the line?
doesn't poisson only work for situations that can only occur in multiples of 1? in other words, you wouldn't use it on total bases b/c a player can get multiple bases in one plate appearance.
Any leagues in particular?
Are you betting every game indiscriminately, or focusing on certain criteria, e.g. only games where the 1h total is 1?
You'd probably want at least 500 games. Maybe back test past games.
Ah yeah, didn't consider that.doesn't poisson only work for situations that can only occur in multiples of 1? in other words, you wouldn't use it on total bases b/c a player can get multiple bases in one plate appearance.
doesn't poisson only work for situations that can only occur in multiples of 1? in other words, you wouldn't use it on total bases b/c a player can get multiple bases in one plate appearance.
This all started on mlb prop of donaldson vs Lindor. My friend was trying to say that if player A averages 2 and player B avg 1. That line should be 2-1. I said it should be higher.