In this thread I answer your gambling questions:

NunyaBidness

Active Member
Oddsb Poker Champ
In this thread I will answer any of your gambling questions. No question too small. If you don't want to post it publicly out of embarrassment, feel free to PM me or tweet @NunyaBidnessBet.
 

NunyaBidness

Active Member
Oddsb Poker Champ
First question (paraphrased) "I know you should bet freeplays on underdogs to maximize value, but xxx -200 is basically free money. Shouldn't I just take that instead?"


No!

Let's say hypothetically you know for a fact that this -200 bet is a lock. In fact, the event is something you have control over. So you can say it is 100% a lock. It is still better to play the freeplay in other ways.

For example. If we have $200 in freeplay to place on this bet. We receive back $100 in cash when it wins.

But, if instead we play the freeplay on a +600 dog, and hedge $1200 on the favorite at -900, we are guaranteed $120 profit instead. If we really shop around, we should be able to approach 66 or even 70% profit on this freeplay with no risk.

In addition, we get the benefit of looking like an asshole at another book where we bet big money on huge favorites, which should go a long way towards keeping our account in good standing. And at some books, we don't pay rollover when our freeplay loses.
 

omalley21

Active Member
My question to that is: Wouldn't it be better to bet the freeplay on a smaller underdog say +400 with the favorite only -475? I feel like the juice on bigger underdogs is larger.
 

NunyaBidness

Active Member
Oddsb Poker Champ
People often advocate the use of round robin parlays for using freeplay, but I don't like it personally. It marks you as a sharp right away.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
I treat freeplay $ as real $, but only use it on BIG underdogs. In a way, I HOPE I lose, cause the thinking is: I'd be betting that, regardless... So if it loses, the freeplay had 100% real $ value (cause I would've lost that real $ bet)
 

NunyaBidness

Active Member
Oddsb Poker Champ
That's not a terrible strategy. Just be careful you're not using freeplay to justify making a bet that you wouldn't if it wasn't real money.

You should look at freeplay as real cash worth about 67 cents on the dollar (depending on book and rules). Which is why its a mistake to take freeplay over items you can trade for cash in things such as the 5dimes contest.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
Yea. It's bets I'd make, anyway
 

NunyaBidness

Active Member
Oddsb Poker Champ
When I first started posting on SBR, everyone was of the mindset that parlays were the key to profit in beating MMA and that they reduced your juice. I made a post titled something like "Parlays aren't magic".

I can't seem to find it now. SBR deleted a lot of my best stuff when they kicked me off there unfortunately.
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
1) What is your unit size ?
2) Do you actively use bank roll management ( i.e your unit size changes dynamicly depending on your bank roll ) ?
3) How did you decide on your current unit size ?
4) What is your most profitable sport ?
5) Can you talk me through how you decide a line is off / profitable / worth playing ( I assume this changes slightly depending on the sport. So just pick one you would like to cover )
6) Have you read any books on probability /stats / gambling related books. Any recommendations ?

P.s great thread.
 

lucky

Active Member
How did the parlay free money joke start?
i remember it going something like this:

luca lost a a chalky parlay. and was like" well thats why i parlayed it. so i wouldnt pay the juice." said he coulda lost 5u to win 1 but cuz of the parlay it was only 2u. or some stupid sht like that. said he was getting something like even money on a -500 fav cuz he parlayed it.

buncha idiots on sbr agreed with him. and said thats why they always parlay favs
 

NunyaBidness

Active Member
Oddsb Poker Champ
1,2,3) I don't really use a unit size as most of the markets I bet are pretty small and have low limits. I generally just max everything. On sports where I can bet more than where I'm comfortable maxing (NFL, team sports, etc), I bet 1/4 kelly. Interestingly this leads to a situation where my mean bet is about 20 times the size of my median bet size.

In terms of bankroll advice I would give for other people, it depends quite a bit on their situation. I would say, most people with the ability to beat sports (including myself here) underbet their bankroll. While most people who can't, wildly overbet it.

4) In terms of actual dollars, MMA is my most profitable sport, followed by NFL. In terms of ROI, it is by far Entertainment bets, including award shows, then Golf. My least profitable sport is MLB.

5) It really depends on the sport. In something like Entertainment props, things often just "look" off to me. Years of looking at lines and having a decent understanding of how things tend to play out makes it sort of automatic. A lot of times these props are simply thrown up by books while doing very little research. For example, this year Bovada set the line at Entourage doing over/under 30 million dollars opening week. 15 seconds searching online would've shown that was a bad line.

6) The books I always recommend are: Sharp Sports Betting, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting, and Conquering Risk. These are basically beginners books. I would also recommend Thinking, Fast, and Slow by Kahneman. Judgment Under Uncertainty, by Kahneman and Tversky. Any good introductory statistics textbook. And maybe most importantly Fooled by Randomness, which completely changed the way I thought about betting markets.

I have begun writing my own book as well, which I am still unsure if I will ever publish. The damage it could do to my bottom line might not be worth the money made from selling it!
 

TheCalculator

Active Member
What's your process for finding value on teasers? Do you typically find teams that you think are going to cover the spread and then tease it?
 
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