Bellator 189 - Budd vs Blencowe - Oklahoma

[ezflyer]

http://www.sherdog.com/events/Bellator-189-Budd-vs-Blencowe-2-63229

 

[ezflyer]

pretty sweet card, actually.

 

[ezflyer]

have definitely seen worse cards than this. same night as tuf 26 finale, i guess. gonna be a busy friday/saturday...

looks like piccolotti vs rickels btw

 

[ezflyer]

Bellator 189: Budd vs. Blencowe
DECEMBER 1, 2017
WinStar World Casino & Resort | Thackerville, Oklahoma

Main Card - Spike TV, 9PM ET

Women's Featherweight Title

Arlene Blencowe +400
Julia Budd -600

Over 4.5 -160
Under 4.5 +120
-

Rafael Lovato +160
Chris Honeycutt -210

Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100
-

Hisaki Kato +150
Chidi Njokuani -190

Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120
-

David Rickels +140
Adam Piccolotti -180

Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110
-

 

[JustBleedFan]

Big 2.5 unit bet on Arlene Blencowe at +400. I just re-watched their first fight and Blencowe arguably won it by edging round 1 on the feet, losing round 2 clearly on her back after getting taken down & smothered and then outstriking Budd very clearly for 2/3rds of round 3 except for a takedown at the end that she stood up from. Even Jimmy Smith thought Blencowe had it in the bag on the scorecards, and Budd only squeaked it out with a majority decision victory that had 10-10 and/or 10-8 rounds putting the scores all over the place. This rematch is a five round title fight now and wrestler Budd most likely has to lay and pray three rounds to win this against a superior striker. I am sure Blencowe will have prepared her anti-wrestling, takedown defense and stand ups.
Love the value on Blencowe even if she doesn't end up pulling it off.

 

[JustBleedFan]

 

[JustBleedFan]

American BJJ black belt and world champion Rafael Lovato Jr. towers over former welterweight wrestler Chris Honeycutt in this middleweight matchup. Huge size difference and Honeycutt is mostly a wrestler & grinder with decent boxing. Lovato is one of the very best BJJ & submission artists from the U.S. ever to compete in MMA and has much improved striking as well. 2 units on Lovato at +225. He can win this by KO, sub or maybe even decision.

 

[ezflyer]

i FREAKED out when twitter alert said piccolotti was +155 or whatever last night, haha. it was -180. and i should've taken it. but it's still just -185, so i'm glad i didn't, cause i can bet more at this line now.

piccolotti is just better. he's faster. he's the better technical striker and the better grappler. AND rickels is taking this on short notice.

large bet on piccolotti done at -185.

 

[ezflyer]

American BJJ black belt and world champion Rafael Lovato Jr. towers over former welterweight wrestler Chris Honeycutt in this middleweight matchup. Huge size difference and Honeycutt is mostly a wrestler & grinder with decent boxing. Lovato is one of the very best BJJ & submission artists from the U.S. ever to compete in MMA and has much improved striking as well. 2 units on Lovato at +225. He can win this by KO, sub or maybe even decision.

so fucking salty i missed +225. i was ready to bet it and got greedy / stopped paying attention at the same time. i hope it goes back to +200ish

 

[ezflyer]

small play for me on lovato +150, really salty i missed out on that movement

 

[JustBleedFan]

What do you think about Sam Sicilia making his Bellator debut vs Marcos Galvao at featherweight? Not sure why Galvao moved up to 145 pounds. Sam is clearly bigger than Galvao and has more power, although Galvao definitely has the submission advantage.

 

[ezflyer]

What do you think about Sam Sicilia making his Bellator debut vs Marcos Galvao at featherweight? Not sure why Galvao moved up to 145 pounds. Sam is clearly bigger than Galvao and has more power, although Galvao definitely has the submission advantage.

man i can't figure sicilia out. so hot and cold. if either side +150 i might consider it. but i'm not confident in that read, either

 

[ezflyer]

hoooooooooooooooly shit lovato vs honeycutt staredown, omfg, look two weight classes apart. and what's honeycutt gonna do if he doesn't like the standup? wrestle? idk if he wants to.. i think his main gameplan will be to strike...

ok, full unit lovato +150. i wish to hell i got that +2xx. oh well.

 

[JustBleedFan]

Sportsbook.com opened a couple of undercard lines. I took Sicilia at +140 for 1u. Galvao is a bantamweight and looks it next to Sam.

Sam Sicilia+140
Marcos Galvao -160

Also had lines for this fight, but markets seem to have disappeared for now at least:

Amber Leibrock
Alexis Dufresne

 

[ezflyer]

3.7u piccolotti -185

1u lovato +150

i might leave it at that, unless i see some movement and/or props on the other two fights.

 

[ezflyer]

piccolotti dec +254 - this might actually be the most likely outcome... ok, 243 as i type this... taking a little. not a ton.

 

[JustBleedFan]

 

[ezflyer]

against ya a little, jim, on the main event. but i'm playing it WAY smaller: taking some budd ITD +154, think she gets her in 3/4/5 at some point

i was holding out for budd -3.5 etc but it just opened at -5.5 -185, so fuck that

 

[JustBleedFan]

Bellator 189 Risk $2082.75

Arlene Blencowe (+400) vs Julia Budd $250.00 for $1,000.00
Arlene Blencowe +5½ points (+155) $75.00 for $116.25
Arlene Blencowe wins by 3 round decision (+495) $25.00 for $123.75

Rafael Lovato Jr. (+225) vs Chris Honeycutt $100.00 for $225.00
Rafael Lovato Jr. (+225) vs Chris Honeycutt $200.00 for $450.00
Rafael Lovato Jr. (+225) vs Chris Honeycutt $100.00 for $225.00
Rafael Lovato Jr. (+225) vs Chris Honeycutt $100.00 for $225.00
Rafael Lovato Jr. (+192) vs Chris Honeycutt $550.00 for $1056.00

Chidi Njokuani (-177) vs Hisaki Kato $177.00 for $100.00

Adam Piccolotti (-201) vs David Rickels $150.75 for $75.00
Adam Piccolotti (-185) vs David Rickels $185.00 for $100.00

Sam Sicilia (+140) vs Marcos Galvao $100.00 for $140.00
Sam Sicilia (+158) vs Marcos Galvao ~$70.00 for ~$110.60

 

[ezflyer]

Bella 189 Risk: 583
budd ITD: 33 for 50.82 / blencowe
lovato +150: 100 for 150 / honeycutt
kato +150: 50 for 75 / njokuani
piccolotti -185: 370 for 200 / piccolotti DEC: 30 for 72.90 / rickels
sicilia-galvao: idk
---

piccolotti my big bet for both cards tonight