tennis 2015

ezflyer

Active Member
by popular demand.. let's do this..

tail at your own risk, long term venture, yada yada yada.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
1u fed to win open +405

day 1:

1.725u coric-nadal O35 -115
0.54u tsonga-nieminen O32 -108
1.13u verdasco-haas O36.5 -113
1.17u fognini +5 -117
1.05u cuevas +1.5 -1.05

thought about doing ebden +8, paire +7.5, seppi -2.5sets, goffin -5.5 or -1.5 sets, but have enough already for day 1 and these would be 0.5u plays if i even did any.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
rules of thumb:

any ML bets, you should do 5d, not elsewhere. cause 5d will honor the bet if a set is completed. (it's so frustrating when the other dude quits and you don't get paid). spreads, o/u's, etc are voided everywhere. even if it's like in the 5th set and you already covered the over, it gets voided.

and for my plays, the +/- is always games unless i specify sets. (i.e. cuevas line is +1.5 sets and +1.5 games, obviously different price, but you get the idea)
 

Will

Administrator
Staff member
 

ezflyer

Active Member
yep. i swear i'll stop if someone dares complain if we have a bad day, tho, haha ;)
 

ezflyer

Active Member
fuck yea, coric is not a quitter, really like this kid. got that over!

good start on day 1, gents, hopefully it rolls into tomorrow :)

my "notable omissions" above went 3-0-1, wish i did them all, haha

day 2:

1.03u becker-istomin O35.5 -103
1.07u melzer +4.5 -107
1.07u kokkinakis-gasquet O35.0 -107
0.575u mayer +8.5 -115

today's chopping block omissions:
duckworth +5, ward +5.5, kohl -3.5 or -1.5 sets, rosol -4 or -1.5 sets.

if they fix the line (which they probably won't do unless someone tells them), i might do rosol -1.5 sets. it's listed as +1.5 sets right now, which is a clear mistake. i don't bet mistake lines like this. i like having accounts :p
 

Mirinquads

Active Member
Staff member
Ez, just for clarification, for instance.. Melzer +3.5 -104 would be a better bet than Melzer +4,5 -107, correct?
 

Mirinquads

Active Member
Staff member
And how'd you calculate the difference in value odds wise? Say you have +3,5 at -103 and +4 at +102

I'm so bad at the math side of this it's embarrsing.. Gonna have to read up on it as soon as possible!
 

alpinepetey

Member
And how'd you calculate the difference in value odds wise? Say you have +3,5 at -103 and +4 at +102

I'm so bad at the math side of this it's embarrsing.. Gonna have to read up on it as soon as possible!
On Pinny Melzer +3.5 is +119 and +4.5 is -106. There are key numbers that are worth more (Like the NFL with -3 and -7) but they are more important in best of 3 sets matches where as the US Open is a major so it is best of 5 sets.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
I have no idea how much each point is worth, but I have to assume +4.5 -107 is better.
Not even close, +4.5 loads better

Remember, tennis is scored differently than just about any sport. Every time the ball is in play, SOMEONE scores. As such, for example, djokovic might beat a bum 6-1 6-1 6-1, but he can beat a quality player by the exact same score. The average strokes per rally might be higher, but the end score ends up the same.

Conversely, a guy like isner is going to have close matches with both elite players and bums alike, because he's so hard to break and he has a shit return game.

I'll elaborate more later
 

punisherind

Moderator
Foundation Member
On Pinny Melzer +3.5 is +119 and +4.5 is -106. There are key numbers that are worth more (Like the NFL with -3 and -7) but they are more important in best of 3 sets matches where as the US Open is a major so it is best of 5 sets.
how do you find the alternate spreads on pinny?

based on those #s, it seems a half game is worth about 12.5 cents. obviously the value will be different depending on the particular matchup and the number (as you mentioned, certain numbers are worth more than others), but you can probably use 12.5c as a rough estimate.

easier method would be to compare with the pinny #s, but i cant find the alternate spread for the life of me.
 

ezflyer

Active Member
On Pinny Melzer +3.5 is +119 and +4.5 is -106. There are key numbers that are worth more (Like the NFL with -3 and -7) but they are more important in best of 3 sets matches where as the US Open is a major so it is best of 5 sets.

Yes, it isn't as strict as 3, 7, 10, 14 etc in football, but there are important standard differential hurdles. Moreso, o/u spots. I.e. in best of 3, 19/20 and 22/23 are hugely important #'s for o/u

Men's tennis comes down to break differential. Women's tennis, to me, is a fucking crapshoot.
 

alpinepetey

Member
how do you find the alternate spreads on pinny?

based on those #s, it seems a half game is worth about 12.5 cents. obviously the value will be different depending on the particular matchup and the number (as you mentioned, certain numbers are worth more than others), but you can probably use 12.5c as a rough estimate.

easier method would be to compare with the pinny #s, but i cant find the alternate spread for the life of me.
There's a dropdown menu for the different spreads. You can also click on a matchup on flashscore.com/tennis
A popup will come up, then click on odds comparison and then AH (Asian Handicap) it lists all the available spreads at many different sites.


 
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