Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by ezflyer, Mar 22, 2015.
2u iaquinta +120
1.5u poirier -150
1u murphy +115
1u yakovlev +120
0.5u mendes-lamas O3.5 +100
0.5u pena + guida-peralta O2.5: +120
Great price on the Mendes/lamas over. Dang.
I was looking at that, and somehow didn't pull the trigger... I don't know what im thinking sometimes
Am I the only one who thinks Mendes wrecks Lamas' world? Like brutally and early.
As soon as Lamas gets battered, he reverts to a defensive shell against Aldo
I am not high on Lamas. I never have been and I usually pick him to lose. So take this with a grain of salt. Mendes is significantly better at every facet of MMA. He also has an edge in several intangibles (chin, power, etc.). Mendes *should* blow Lamas out of the water. 3.5 rounds is a long time against a fighter who hits as hard as Mendes especially when there is a talent disparity as large as this is.
for a whopping 0.5u ><
Lamas BJJ and kicking game is better. But it all depends on if he actually engages him in a brawl, which I'm not sure he will.
so, where's everyone laying their $ here?
so far i'm:
ufn 63 Risk: 1,098
Lamas-Mendes O3.5: 50 for 50 - 50 parlays
Iaquinta +120: 200 for 240 / O2.5: 50 parlays / Masvidal
Pena: 150 parlays / Pena RD 1: 25 for 100 / U2.5: 50 for 72.50 / Dudieva
Guida-Peralta O2.5: 150 parlays
Poirier -150: 150 for 100 / Poirier DEC: 40 for 102 / O2.5: 50 for 52.50 - 50 parlays / Ferreira
Murphy +115: 100 for 115 / O1.5: 50 parlays / Carmouche
Yakovlev +120: 100 for 120 / Yakovlev KO: 33 for 99 / Maynard
Jones-Stallings O1.5: 50 parlays
50 for 59.95 pena -260 & guida-peralta O2.5 -170
100 for 133.77 pena -275 & rockhold -140 (ufc fox 15)
50 for 83.33 guida-peralta O2.5 -180 & rockhold -140 (ufc fox 15)
100 RR for 321.64: RL/CM O3.5, AI/JM O2.5, RPCGO2.5/ CDF/DP O2.5, LM/LC O2.5, JJ/RS O1.5
it shouldn't be a big card for me. i have no clue on the first two fights of the night. no clue if i'll bother with chiesa-clarke, either. might end up w/$ on lamas, but i might wait until mid fight card to bet that, after i see if live betting is up (skeptical, being so early on saturday).
might actually do another 0.5u or 1u on iaquinta. tbd.
I have various plays on Pena for around 3u to win ITD, by sub, and u2.5. She's my big play of the night. I can't wrap my head around why her dec odds are worst than her ITD odds. Also playing Maynard and Guida.
wrrrrrrrrrrrastlers for mike! hehe
i mostly agree on pena, just can't go big cause she has a vag.
Never trust anything that bleeds for a week and doesn't die?
Best advice my father ever gave.
Fucking A right. At least I don't hide it. But I'm not as bad as Bagels though.
ez will u ever start betting more on wmma?
if it floats, flies or fucks. just rent. never buy
i have a fair amount on pena, actualy.. 1.5u in parlays and 0.75u (or so) in props. that's about as big as i'll go, though.
i did break that rule a few months ago, and i paid dearly for it. huge mistake. i had 6 units on andrea lee vs modaferri. at like -190 net. and roxy got to like +500 on fight night, i think, and i didn't hedge.
pathetic bet, but it reaffirmed: can't trust 'em
First time posting actual bets, so I'll probably get slaughter
4 U Iaquinta @ 2.5
4 U Yak @ 1.97
1.5 U Yak ITD @ 3.2
1 U Johnson @ 3.25
1 U Johnson KO @ 6
6 U Abdurahimov/Johnson ITD @ 1.5
7 U Ferreira @ 2.65
2.2 U Ferreira ITD @ 4.4
.5 U Ferreira KO @ 8
.8 U Clarke by Decision @ 6
.3 Unit Mendes by KO in Round 2 @ 15
.2 Unit Mendes by KO in Round 3 @ 18
3.5 U Mendez Decision @ 2.5
0.5 U Abdurahimov Sub @ 6
- regretting Clark decision, despite changing my mind on it since making it, the line looks like its only going to get better. Thinking about reversing it but will probably be too expensive to bother
- bad price on Yak, got to it late and missed a lot of value.
- odds in euro format obviously.
Edit: think i quoted close to 15 units total exposure to Ferreira earlier, calculated incorrectly cuase i rarely use unit, total exposure closer to 10
Just realized jibby is probably going to read this. Fck.
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