Your official UFC on Fox 29 Bets

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by JimGunn, Apr 10, 2018.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    post 'em
     
  2. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    2u Cortney Casey +105
    1u Tim Boetsch +220
     
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  3. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    1u gaethje +135

    1u vettori +235

    0.67u Mueller +100
     
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  4. punisherind

    punisherind Active Member

    condit un 2.5 +175 1u

    burns un 2.5 +130 1u
     
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  5. Vaughany

    Vaughany Active Member

    5000 unitz on Condit @ +200;

    2000 unitz on Gaethje by TKO/KO @ +195;

    2000 unitz on Vettori @ +235;

    2000 unitz on Jotko by Decision @ +200;
     
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  6. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    added:

    0.5u condit +185

    1u more on vettori +230ish (2u +231 net)

    1u rainey +150
    0.1u rainey SUB +1300

    0.8u reis -120

    0.13u jotko DEC +205

    0.38ishu mueller -115 (1.05u -105 net)

    0.13u lima DEC +205
    0.27u okami DEC +213
    0.48u DEC -180
    0.45u lima NSC -134

    0.33u wieczorek +295

    1u lopez -125
     
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  7. Vaughany

    Vaughany Active Member

    2000 unitz on Vettori @ +225;
     
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  8. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    UFC 129 Risk: 2,065.55
    gaethje +135: 150 for 202.50 / poirier
    condit +75: 75 for 138.75 / condit RD3: 25 for 450 / a.oliveira
    vettori +231: 300 for 692.50 / adesanya
    waterson +145: 90 for 130.50 / waterson DEC: 60 for 147.20 / casey
    boetsch ITD: 20 for 88 / boetsch KO: 20 for 103 / boetsch RD3: 12 for 204 / shoeface
    rainey +170: 150 for 255 / rainey SUB: 15 for 195 / salikhov
    reis -120: 120 for 100 / moraga
    jotko DEC: 20 for 41 / tavares
    burns-moret: idk
    mueller -105: 157.50 for 150 / dobson
    lima DEC: 20 for 41 / lima NSC: 128 for 100 / DEC: 72 for 40 / okami DEC: 40 for 85
    wieczorek +295: 50 for 147.50 / bhullar
    lopez -121: 181.50 for 150 / perez
    williams NSC: 30 for 105 / sanders
    props
    DEC O9.5: 20 for 133.80
    DEC O10.5: 5 for 101.25
    DEC O11.5: 2 for 165.50
    parlays
    33 for 27.82 reis-moraga O2.5 -270 & jotko-tavares O2.5 -290
    33 for 31.06 reis-moraga O2.5 -270 & lima-okami O2.5 -240
    33 for 29.87 jotko-tavares O2.5 -290 & lima-okami O2.5 -240
    21 RR for 3,450.26: gaethjeRD3/ conditRD3/ vettoriRD1/ boetschRD3/ raineyRD3/ muellerSUB/ williamsRD1
    35 RR for 2,254.37: gaethjepoirierDEC/ conditITD/ vettoriNSC/ boetschNSC/ raineysalikhovRD1/ wieczorek/ williamsNSC
    30 RR for 1,034.71: vettoriSUB/ boetschITD/ salikhovRD1/ burnsRD2/ muellerITD/ lopezSUB
    46.55 RR for 1,211.93: vettori/ watersonDEC/ boetsch/ raineyNSC/ burnsSUB/ limaDEC/ lopezDEC
    50 RR for 959.98: gaethjepoirierO3.0/ vettoriNSC/ reisDEC/ tavaresDEC/ burnsSUB/ limaDEC
    21 RR for 2,132.57: gaethjeRD3/ vettoriSUB/ watersonSUB/ raineySUB/ tavaresKO/ burnsRD3/ limaSUB
    ---

    mehhhhhhhhhhh not confident today
     
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  9. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    UFC on Fox 29 Risk $3359.75

    Justin Gaethje (+125) vs Dustin Poirier $200.00 for $250.00
    Justin Gaethje/Dustin Poirier Over 1½ (-155) $310.00 for $200.00
    Justin Gaethje wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00

    Alex Oliveira (-200) vs Carlos Condit $200.00 for $100.00
    Alex Oliveira (-200) vs Carlos Condit $200.00 for $100.00
    Alex Oliveira -3½ points (+135) $75.00 for $101.25
    Alex Oliveira wins inside distance (+281) $50.00 for $140.50
    Alex Oliveira wins by TKO/KO (+365) $35.00 for $127.75
    Alex Oliveira wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+800) ~$8.00 for ~$64.00
    Alex Oliveira wins in round 1 (+525) $20.00 for $105.00
    Alex Oliveira wins in round 1 (+600) ~$16.00 for ~$96.00
    Carlos Condit wins by submission in round 3 (+7000) ~$8.00 for ~$560.00
    Alex Oliveira/Carlos Condit Under 2½ (+160) $100.00 for $160.00
    Alex Oliveira/Carlos Condit time out in the fight (+210) ~$8.00 for ~$16.80

    Marvin Vettori (+225) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $450.00
    Marvin Vettori wins by submission (+800) ~$24.00 for ~$192.00
    Marvin Vettori/Israel Adesanya Over 1½ (-150) $300.00 for $200.00

    Cortney Casey (+105) vs Michelle Waterson $200.00 for $210.00
    Cortney Casey wins inside distance (+525) $25.00 for $131.25
    Cortney Casey wins by submission (+695) $25.00 for $173.75

    Tim Boetsch (+220) vs Antonio Carlos Junior $100.00 for $220.00
    Tim Boetsch wins by TKO/KO (+515) $40.00 for $206.00
    Tim Boetsch wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+700) ~$16.00 for ~$112.00
    Tim Boetsch/Antonio Carlos Junior Under 1½ (+127) $100.00 for $127.00

    Ricky Rainey (+165) vs Muslim Salikhov $100.00 for $165.00

    John Moraga (+110) vs Wilson Reis $200.00 for $220.00
    John Moraga wins by TKO/KO (+550) $20.00 for $110.00

    Krzysztof Jotko scorecards = no action (+153) vs Brad Tavares $75.00 for $114.75

    Gilbert Burns/Dan Moret Under 2½ $100.00 for $110.00

    Lauren Mueller (-115) vs Shana Dobson $115.00 for $100.00
    Lauren Mueller wins inside distance (+500) $20.00 for $100.00
    Lauren Mueller wins by submission (+1100) ~$16.00 for ~$176.00
    Lauren Mueller wins in round 3 (+1950) $10.00 for $195.00

    Dhiego Lima (+110) vs Yushin Okami $100.0 for $110.00
    Dhiego Lima wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+700) ~$16.00 for ~$112.00
    Dhiego Lima/Yushin Okami Under 2½ (+215) $50.00 for $107.50

    Arjan Bhullar -3½ points (-205) vs Adam Wieczorek $82.00 for $40.00

    Alejandro Perez/Matthew Lopez Over 2½ (-230) $69.00 for $30.00

    Luke Sanders/Patrick Williams Under 1½ (-117) $87.75 for $75.00

    Justin Gaethje/Dustin Poirier awarded FOTN bonus (+157) ~$24.00 for ~$37.68
     
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  10. Perra

    Perra Active Member

    70$ Vettori +225
    20$ Vettori sub +1100
    10$ Vettori rd2 +1600
    5$ Vettori sub rd2 +3000
    35$ Rainey +162
    20$ Reis/Moraga itd
    50$ Sanders/Williams u1,5 +125
    35$ Perez
    20$ Perez dec +200
    10$ Okami rd2 +1400
    20$ Gaethje tko/ko +200
    10$ Oliveira tko/ko +350



    40$ (15$ Freebet money) RR: Perez dec + ACJ dec + Rainey dec + Mueller itd to win 3200$
    40$ rr: Rainey dec + Vettori + Condit/BC u2,5 + Gaethje tko/ko to win 1400$
    20$ Reis/Moraga itd + Stylebender/Vettori o1,5 +325
    10$ Okami rd2 + Vettori rd2 to win 2600$
    30$ Oliveira + Casey +180
     
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  11. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member Oddsb CC Champ

    1u Justin +105 ( got this early. dont love it )
    .5u Carlos +160 ( will add another .5u at end of rd 1 )
    .5u Vettori +215 ( will add another .5u at end of rd 1 if rd 1 was competitive )
    .25u Tim KO +550
     
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  12. JoshKnows46

    JoshKnows46 Active Member

    Poirier -120 risking 5 units
    Condit +170 risking 5 units
     
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  13. Zeckdo

    Zeckdo Member

    +3.8u on the night. biggest win of career.
     
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  14. JoshKnows46

    JoshKnows46 Active Member

    1-1 prefights/-0.83
    2-0 live/ +$900/+3 units

    +2.17 units on the night
     
  15. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    UFC 129 Net: -2,833.37
    gaethje -112: 1,112.10 for 988.56 / ITD: 205 for 100
    condit -142: 625 for 438.75 / condit RD3: 25 for 450 / ITD: 100 for 140
    vettori +299: 675 for 2,020 / ITD: 200 for 150
    waterson +147: 350 for 515.50 / waterson DEC: 60 for 147.20
    boetsch ITD: 20 for 88 / boetsch KO: 20 for 103 / boetsch RD3: 12 for 204
    rainey +205: 625 for 1,283.75 / rainey SUB: 15 for 195
    reis +192: 280 for 537.50
    jotko +350: 40 for 140 / jotko DEC: 20 for 41

    mueller -107: 203.50 for 190 / mueller NSC: 92 for 93.50
    lima DEC: 20 for 41 / lima NSC: 128 for 100 / DEC: 72 for 40 / okami DEC: 40 for 82
    wieczorek +295: 50 for 147.50

    lopez -121: 181.50 for 150
    williams NSC: 30 for 105
    props
    DEC O9.5: 20 for 133.80
    DEC O10.5: 5 for 101.25
    DEC O11.5: 2 for 165.50

    parlays
    33 for 27.82 reis-moraga O2.5 -270 & jotko-tavares O2.5 -290
    33 for 31.06 reis-moraga O2.5 -270 & lima-okami O2.5 -240
    33 for 29.87 jotko-tavares O2.5 -290 & lima-okami O2.5 -240
    21 RR for 3,450.26: gaethjeRD3/ conditRD3/ vettoriRD1/ boetschRD3/ raineyRD3/ muellerSUB/ williamsRD1
    35 RR for (paid -31.20) 2,254.37: gaethjepoirierDEC/ conditITD/ vettoriNSC/ boetschNSC/ raineysalikhovRD1/ wieczorek/ williamsNSC
    30 RR for 1,034.71: vettoriSUB/ boetschITD/ salikhovRD1/ burnsRD2/ muellerITD/ lopezSUB
    46.55 RR for 1,211.93: vettori/ watersonDEC/ boetsch/ raineyNSC/ burnsSUB/ limaDEC/ lopezDEC
    50 RR for 959.98: gaethjepoirierO3.0/ vettoriNSC/ reisDEC/ tavaresDEC/ burnsSUB/ limaDEC
    21 RR for 2,132.57: gaethjeRD3/ vettoriSUB/ watersonSUB/ raineySUB/ tavaresKO/ burnsRD3/ limaSUB

    50 RR for 384.71: gaethjeKO/ conditITD/ vettori/ watersonDEC/ NOTshoefaceSUB
    50 RR for (paid -13.28) 194.77: gaethjeNSC/ conditolivITD/ vettoriNSC/ NOTcaseyDEC/ boetsch+3.5

    ---

    that's a wrap for me, no exagerration. i don't have what it takes anymore and i think i've been kind of "looking" for this to happen, like, i've been asking for it.

    it's been real, guys, was a fun few years. best of luck. don't chase.
     
  16. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    You've been going really deep, in the high hundreds of dollars, on live betting lately on certain fights, maybe out of seeing a perceived opportunity or due to frustration. Unfortunately those fights didn't go your way. That's where a lot of your recent losses came from.
     
  17. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Huge swing with Cortney Casey losing that split decision to Karate Hottie, unjustifiably in my mind. But Brazilian Cowboy came through huge for me to salvage the night and earn me a modest 1.90 units profit for the card.

    UFC on Fox 29 Results


    Justin Gaethje (+125) vs Dustin Poirier $200.00 for $250.00= -$200.00
    Justin Gaethje/Dustin Poirier Over 1½ (-155) $310.00 for $200.00= $200.00
    Justin Gaethje wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00= -$15.00

    Alex Oliveira (-200) vs Carlos Condit $200.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Alex Oliveira (-200) vs Carlos Condit $200.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Alex Oliveira (-185) vs Carlos Condit $185.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Alex Oliveira -3½ points (+135) $75.00 for $101.25 = $101.25
    Alex Oliveira wins inside distance (+281) $50.00 for $140.50= $140.50
    Alex Oliveira wins by TKO/KO (+365) $35.00 for $127.75= -$35.00
    Alex Oliveira wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+800) ~$8.00 for ~$64.00= -~$8.00
    Alex Oliveira wins in round 1 (+525) $20.00 for $105.00= -$20.00
    Alex Oliveira wins in round 1 (+600) ~$16.00 for ~$96.00= -~$16.00
    Carlos Condit wins by submission in round 3 (+7000) ~$8.00 for ~$560.00= -~$8.00
    Alex Oliveira/Carlos Condit Under 2½ (+160) $100.00 for $160.00= $160.00
    Alex Oliveira/Carlos Condit time out in the fight (+210) ~$8.00 for ~$16.80= -~$8.00
    Live In-Play Alex Oliveira (+140) vs Carlos Condit $200.00 for $280.00= $280.00

    Marvin Vettori (+225) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $450.00= -$200.00
    Marvin Vettori wins by submission (+800) ~$24.00 for ~$192.00= -~$24.00
    Marvin Vettori/Israel Adesanya Over 1½ (-150) $300.00 for $200.00= $200.00

    Cortney Casey (+105) vs Michelle Waterson $200.00 for $210.00= -$200.00
    Cortney Casey wins inside distance (+525) $25.00 for $131.25= -$25.00
    Cortney Casey wins by submission (+695) $25.00 for $173.75= -$25.00
    Live In-Play Cortney Casey (+100) vs Michelle Waterson $200.00 for $200.00= -$200.00

    Tim Boetsch (+220) vs Antonio Carlos Junior $100.00 for $220.00= -$100.00
    Tim Boetsch wins by TKO/KO (+515) $40.00 for $206.00= -$40.00
    Tim Boetsch wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+700) ~$16.00 for ~$112.00= -~$16.00
    Tim Boetsch/Antonio Carlos Junior Under 1½ (+127) $100.00 for $127.00= $127.00

    Ricky Rainey (+165) vs Muslim Salikhov $100.00 for $165.00= -$100.00

    John Moraga (+110) vs Wilson Reis $200.00 for $220.00= $220.00
    John Moraga wins by TKO/KO (+550) $20.00 for $110.00= -$20.00

    Krzysztof Jotko scorecards = no action (+153) vs Brad Tavares $75.00 for $114.75= -$75.00

    Gilbert Burns/Dan Moret Under 2½ $100.00 for $110.00= $110.00

    Lauren Mueller (-115) vs Shana Dobson $115.00 for $100.00= $100.00
    Lauren Mueller wins inside distance (+500) $20.00 for $100.00= -$20.00
    Lauren Mueller wins by submission (+1100) ~$16.00 for ~$176.00= -~$16.00
    Lauren Mueller wins in round 3 (+1950) $10.00 for $195.00= -$10.00

    Dhiego Lima (+110) vs Yushin Okami $100.0 for $110.00= -$100.00
    Dhiego Lima wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+700) ~$16.00 for ~$112.00= -~$16.00
    Dhiego Lima/Yushin Okami Under 2½ (+215) $50.00 for $107.50= -$50.00

    Arjan Bhullar -3½ points (-205) vs Adam Wieczorek $82.00 for $40.00= -$82.00

    Alejandro Perez/Matthew Lopez Over 2½ (-230) $69.00 for $30.00= -$69.00

    Luke Sanders/Patrick Williams Under 1½ (-117) $87.75 for $75.00= -$87.75

    Justin Gaethje/Dustin Poirier awarded FOTN bonus (+157) ~$24.00 for ~$37.68= ~$37.68
    -----
    Sub-Total= $265.00
    Sub-Total= -~$74.32

    Total Profit= $190.68
     
  18. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member Oddsb CC Champ

    Sorry Ezy, That's a big one.

    Depending on how your brain works, Perhaps reset your W/L counter for the year. Start at "0" then at the end of the year, combine your two numbers to see where you really ended up.

    Thats what i would do. You have a long documented history of massive yearly wins. You can bounce back if you get your head right.

    P.s I am up for the year, but not by much, its been a rough year for many people. So its probably not "you".
     
  19. Wilbo86

    Wilbo86 Member

    Ez you'v got an edge but you need to steady the ship for a while. After a long loosing streak I start seeing things that aren't there, making plays that I wouldn't usually make. I hate giving unsolicited advice, but when I'm in a situation like this, I set a rule, and pick just one fight each card you think has the juiciest lines and hit them, build your confidence back.
     
  20. Mirinquads

    Mirinquads Active Member Staff Member



    Only thing to take away here Ez, is that youre changing your betting style. That is a clear sign that youre not objective, and thats the thing you should asses.. not so much that youre on a bad beat right now, it happens to the best of us.. you have been profitable the last 5 years, thats insanely good over all.
     

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