Your 2015 Bets :- Year in Review

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by Will, Dec 21, 2015.

  1. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    It comes to that time of year when all serious gamblers go over their bets for the year look at where things went well and where things could of gone better.
    If you are not recording each and every one of your bets then it makes it much more difficult to critically analyze your game play over the year. Its easy to fool yourself into thinking a particular sport has treated you well when in actual fact it hasn't.

    I believe Napes and Petey have posted some great spreadsheets if you do not want to make your own.

    In the interests of transparency here are my 2015 results.

    Total Sports Units :- +79.6 units ( still have 3 live bets )

    It was a decent result but the first time in 3 years I have not cracked +120 units. I mostly put that down to the extended dark period of no real live betting, a difficult start to the year ( was not truly profitable until February) and my dabbling in other sports I really have no business in touching.

    Notables :
    • By far MMA has been the most profitable niche for me
    • Other non mma sport gambling has resulted in a net loss
    • My MMA prop bets returned -8 units for the year

    Action List :-
    I plan on raising my unit size to $250 from $200 ( This also correlates with live betting maxes ).
    Either lower my non mma unit size from $100-$200 to $50. Or just not bet other sports at all.
    Need to reload in pinnacle as it usually has the least juice.
    Give up on mma props ?

    So how was your year ? What was your biggest wins? Worst losses ? What could you have done differently? What will you do differently ?

    Also out of interest, for those that track their MMA Prop bets. Were they profitable for you this year ?
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2015
    ezflyer and opinionator like this.
  2. opinionator

    opinionator Member

    got slaughtered betting against macgregor. never again
  3. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    I bet Aldo as well. Alot of people did. Allot of sharps did. They pushed the line back down.

    Hindsight is a beautiful thing but Aldo had not fought in 2 years, coming off injury, Possibly coming off some special supplements had not been finishing his opponents. Connor is much bigger.

    I got caught up in a sharp vs fish mentality. SO many fish were on mcgreggor. People at work who dont bet / watch mma were on mcgreggor. This played too big of role in my decision to play Aldo.
  4. Sky

    Sky Member

    My first year of sportsbetting I'm up nearly 5k. (95% combat sports). Started with $200 bankroll so my unit size has been slowly increasing. A unit for me now is around $100 but also been 1/4 Kelly staking more recently. Haven't been tracking for last 6 months but pretty sure for Mma prop bets I'm at best break even on them.. Wudnt surprise me if they are just bleeding my ML edge. Actually I'm pretty certain they are who am I kidding. Have only just started really looking at them last couple months tho Im green as fuk with them and definitely considering sticking to just ML, or going back to keeping records so I can know for sure. Keen to hear from some of the other oddsb regs on their Mma prop takings!
    ezflyer likes this.
  5. opinionator

    opinionator Member

    i'm in my first year of sports betting and can track down all my deposits + bonuses, 100% certain they are less than my overall balance across my 3 books. motivation has been patchy but i feel i have my head in the game now and i am pretty keen to start a fresh year knowing i am up and begin keeping proper track of my bets (i'm lazy because i'm a poker player used to tracking programs doing all that shit for me and flashing the graphs up for me to gloat or cry over) ... oh yeah and 100% credit for my interest and motivation comes from you shower of bastards. great community !!
    ezflyer, Wilbo86 and Mirinquads like this.
  6. Sky

    Sky Member

    Yea somebody make sporttracker with bookie HUD already
  7. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    Thought this was an appropriate place for a legit 2015 recap vid.
    Mirinquads likes this.
  8. Wilbo86

    Wilbo86 Member

    Props are far more profitable than MLs for me, always have been. If I have a good read and confidence I'll smash a prop and usually make a lot.

    In terms of my 2015, was up around 15k through June, lost half of that in the next four months on noticable shitty bets/motivation/research/tim boetsch (still not sure what to think about that one). Then managed to claw some of that back in the last 2 months.

    2016 I'll be looking to pick my spots more to deal with time constraints/life in general. Possibly bet bigger but less variety to maintain volume. But most of all, resist the overwhelming urge to convince myself that I have an edge, based on past performance, and place bets without doing proper research.
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2015
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  9. Beelzebubzy

    Beelzebubzy Active Member

    Ronda ITD -580 - biggest loss of the year
    Cain KO -120 2nd biggest loss

    Weidman -350 biggest win
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2015
    Will likes this.
  10. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    Love this thread.. Gonna spam it like crazy when I get to the office
  11. PSUMike

    PSUMike Active Member

    I was having a pretty damn good year until UFC 189. I forget what my exact total was but I was up nearly 40 units on the year at that point and lost almost all of it on one card. Lost 35.2 units on that card alone. I've been slowly picking my spots since with 1-2 plays per card of 1-2 units a piece.
    Will and ezflyer like this.
  12. 1LuckyFlip

    1LuckyFlip Member

    55% roi on mma dfs for the year. I don't play anything else.
    Will likes this.
  13. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    unit: $100.00

    2015: +174.59u

    ufc: +147.05u
    bellator: +20.62u
    invicta: +3.21u
    wsof: +0.57u
    titan: +3.57u
    others: -0.43u (interesting)


    best events:

    UFC 182: +2,133.64
    UFC 183: +1,990.38
    ufc 188: +1,643.80
    ufc fox 17: +1,629.13
    UFC 184: +1,490.35
    ufn 73: +1,468.53
    ufn 63: +1,109.15
    tuf 22: +1,041.23
    UFN 60: +1,003.56

    worst events:

    ufn 64: -1,252.15
    ufc 189: -1,357.40
    UFC Fox 14: -1,932.10


    the following categories are PREFIGHT odds. so if i bet a guy who was -150 prefight as a +150 dog, the win goes into the small favorite category, even tho it was a +150 bet

    small favorites (up to -200): -8.87u (whoa)
    medium favorites (-201 to -400): +7.50u
    huge favorites (-401 and up): +17.73u

    small dogs (up to +200): +138.33u
    medium dogs (+201 to +400): +33.93u
    large dogs (+401 and up): -14.04u (whoa)

    interesting on small faves and huge dogs. huge dogs are the only lifetime losing category for me, too, for the record.


    bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +155.73u
    bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +18.86u


    the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

    huge losses (-4u or worse):

    12/12/15: saenz vs faber: -400.00
    6/20/15: hallmann vs mustafaev: -409.00
    3/21/15: dober vs silva: -412.50 (the non-tap)
    6/27/15: machida vs romero: -434.75
    10/3/15: jouban vs tumenov: -500.00
    12/19/15: JDS vs overeem: -502.84
    7/11/15: thatch vs gunnar: -505.00
    3/14/15: esparza vs jedrzejczyk: -700.00 (the fight that made me make wmma bets smaller)
    1/24/15: gustafsson vs AJ: -717.50
    1/24/15: aliev vs robertson: -772.50 (i don't remember how i lost so big. i do think it was flukey, tho)
    4/11/15: westcott vs pawlak: -816.00 (overestimated westcott SO BADLY)

    huge wins (+6u or better... too many wins of 4u and 5u to list)

    1/18/15: pendred vs spencer +607.76 (hehe cathal special)
    2/22/15: ponzinnibio vs strickland +617.04
    4/18/15: villante vs anderson +631.00 (mostly live)
    7/18/15: dunham vs pearson +650.00
    12/19/15: oliveira vs jury: +671.83
    12/12/15: rockhold vs weidman: +678.01
    3/14/15: dariush vs cruickshank: +726.50
    1/3/15: felder vs castillo: +733.19
    4/25/15: davis vs kaufman: +814.78 (wow, more than i remembered)
    3/14/15: RDA vs pettis: +820.42
    1/31/15: tate vs mcmann: +824.58 (wow, more than i remembered)
    2/13/15: bendo vs thatch: +978.85
    1/31/15: lineker vs mccall: +1,074.93 (mostly live)
    6/13/15: werdum vs cain: +1,108.00
    6/13/15: alvarez vs melendez: +1,208.86 (mostly live)
    2/28/15: carneiro vs munoz: +1,399.00 (mostly live)


    100u is my yearly goal, so i killed it this year, really happy about it!
    BT, 1LuckyFlip and Will like this.
  14. Mirinquads

    Mirinquads Active Member Staff Member

    Has actually been a sick year of fights.

    Will tally my shit up later.
  15. 1LuckyFlip

    1LuckyFlip Member

    I find this stat very interesting. Can you define prefight? Is it the odds that show up on tv for each fighter?
  16. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    it's the general odds of the fighter before the fight, when i bet them.. or if it's a fighter i didn't bet prefight, it's where they closed prefight (rare here, cause i bet most fights)

    and yea, pretty crazy how much more of my $ comes from dogs than faves, i think that's changed over the years, would have to check
  17. Perra

    Perra Active Member

    Started building a serious bankroll this year. Started with depositing 50$ on 5dimes and 50$ on unibet and now I deposited 100€ to betvictor, currently sitting at rougly 6k$ as bank roll, mostly due to hitting massive parlays. One returned 1,8k and last event I won 1,6k. Had huge fluctuations in my bankroll this year, but the trend is pointing in the right direction.

    My strategy has always been to go big when I think there's value, and in MMA (maybe betting in general) I believe the value is usually in mispriced dogs and weird prop bets. Almost always lose when I parlay big favourites. Always make the same stupid mistake of believing "this guy just can't lose this fight" and neglect the fact that there's probably zero value in the odds.

    Still have a lot to learn, and haven't figured everything out yet, but this forum and sherdog's betting thread really helps for inspiration. My biggest problem is that the goldmine unibet has limited me, and I need to solve that problem somehow. Thinking about signing up with my gf's name.

    Hope you all had a really good year!
    Will and ezflyer like this.
  18. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    I did not make money betting MMA for the first three to four years. I see it as an apprenticeship ;)

    @ezflyer , do you have a breakdown of prop bets ?
  19. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    I could with a lil work. It's all in there. Don't have a quick way to do it
  20. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Everyone's posting their year end reviews and I'm just sitting here wondering what the line on Jaideep Singh is going to be.

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