UFN 63

[ezflyer]

UFC Fight Night 63 - Featherweight 5 rounds - Patriot Center, Fairfax - Virginia FS1
Sat 4/4 1001 Ricardo Lamas +350 o3½ +100
1:00PM 1002 Chad Mendes -530 u3½ -140
Sat 4/4 1101 Al laquinta +130 o2½ -280
12:30PM 1102 Jorge Masvidal -170 u2½ +200
Sat 4/4 1201 Mitch Clarke +300 o2½ -180
12:00PM 1202 Michael Chiesa -420 u2½ +140
Sat 4/4 1301 Milana Dudieva +200 o2½ -215
11:30AM 1302 Julianna Pena -280 u2½ +165
Sat 4/4 1401 Robbie Peralta +170 o2½ -170
11:00AM 1402 Clay Guida -230 u2½ +130
Sat 4/4 1501 Diego Ferreira +140 o2½ -135
10:30AM 1502 Dustin Poirier -180 u2½ -105
Sat 4/4 1601 Lauren Murphy +115 o2½ -245
10:00AM 1602 Liz Camouche -155 u2½ +175
Sat 4/4 1701 Alexander Yakovlev +120 o2½ -170
9:30AM 1702 Gray Maynard -160 u2½ +130
Sat 4/4 1801 Timothy Johnson +190 o1½ -145
9:00AM 1802 Shamil Abdurahimov -270 u1½ +105
Sat 4/4 1901 Justin Jones -170 o1½ -190
8:30AM 1902 Ron Stallings +130 u1½ +150

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1u murphy +115

maybe iaquinta +130?

lamas +350 i will prolly hit, but watching price / movement

yakovlev +120 vs gray? auto fade?

 

[Mirinquads]

I think Gray should dispose of Yakovlev, he's truely useless as a fighter.

 

[Beelzebubzy]

I think Gray should dispose of Yakovlev, he's truely useless as a fighter.

the wind can KO Maynard at this point. I am thinking of a filkins on Yakovlev KO and maynard decision.

 

[Mirinquads]

I disagree. He took some shots from Pearson who hits like a mactruck.

 

[Mirinquads]

Anyone know anyhting about Timothy Johnson or The russian? Never seen any of them fight, but Kevin Garner is a decent win.

 

[ezflyer]

Anyone know anyhting about Timothy Johnson or The russian? Never seen any of them fight, but Kevin Garner is a decent win.

don't know either of them

know everyone else tho

 

[ezflyer]

feel like such a tard for only getting 1u in on iaquinta at the opener (or close to opener). i even said it'll probably even out.

poirier back to -150, hitting it

 

[mmaed]

A point about yakolev, his previous fights were at 170. Nico musoke is a big 170 pounder and maia is obviously good at outwrestling his opponents

 

[Wilbo86]

A point about yakolev, his previous fights were at 170. Nico musoke is a big 170 pounder and maia is obviously good at outwrestling his opponents

Haven't played anything yet, but this will probably be the reason I end up on yakovlev. Would have played the opener for sure, but been soo behind with getting this shit done. Need to just give up one card to catch up.

 

[Wilbo86]

Anyone one have predictions for where Iaquinta will close? Feel like with his recent run of KOs he'll get bet down more... I can't figure out which side is square...

 

[PSUMike]

I am against the masses here but I like Masvidal over Al. I think Jorge has better hands and a good enough sprawl to keep it up. He's a bitch to take down. Plus, Al isn't the most reliable fighter. Jorge has a serious chin as well.

 

[Wilbo86]

I am against the masses here but I like Masvidal over Al. I think Jorge has better hands and a good enough sprawl to keep it up. He's a bitch to take down. Plus, Al isn't the most reliable fighter. Jorge has a serious chin as well.

I give Masvidal an advantage in fight IQ over just about anybody (massive in this matchup), and definately has a considerable experience/consistency edge here. I guess my concern is that, his natural inclination is to take centre and pressure, and thats exactly what the last two guys tried to do to Iaquinta. Could see him staying on the outside and winning on volume if Masvidal doesn't adjust.

 

[AvgAmericanM]

I am against the masses here but I like Masvidal over Al. I think Jorge has better hands and a good enough sprawl to keep it up. He's a bitch to take down. Plus, Al isn't the most reliable fighter. Jorge has a serious chin as well.

You think Al will try to take him down? I actually think Masvidal is the better overall wrestler, a lot better defensive wrestling, better in scrambles, and if wants to use it better offensive wrestling. I also like Masvidal in the clinch if he chooses to mitigate Al's strengths by smothering him against he cage. My concern is flashes of Chiesa rocking him compared to what Al could do to him. On Gamebred at -120, -150.

 

[PSUMike]

You think Al will try to take him down? I actually think Masvidal is the better overall wrestler, a lot better defensive wrestling, better in scrambles, and if wants to use it better offensive wrestling. I also like Masvidal in the clinch if he chooses to mitigate Al's strengths by smothering him against he cage. My concern is flashes of Chiesa rocking him compared to what Al could do to him. On Gamebred at -120, -150.

I think Jorge will win the stand up exchanges and Al will look to wrestle as a plan B. And I don't really put a lot of stock in Chiesa hurting him. Just look at some of the other shots he's eaten like against Khabilov. I think it was fairly fluky that Chiesa hurt him.

I give Masvidal an advantage in fight IQ over just about anybody (massive in this matchup), and definately has a considerable experience/consistency edge here. I guess my concern is that, his natural inclination is to take centre and pressure, and thats exactly what the last two guys tried to do to Iaquinta. Could see him staying on the outside and winning on volume if Masvidal doesn't adjust.

I hear what you are saying. But, you can't compare Lauzon in any way to Masvidal. They are completely different fighters and completely different stylistic match ups for Al. The Pearson parallel does hold a little more water. The difference is Ross is a little chinny and not as good of a grappler as Jorge is. IIRC, Iaquinta was looking to mix in wrestling with his striking there. I haven't watched that fight since I watched it live but I remember thinking Pearson took a close round 1 before getting KO'd.

It's a close fight but I struggle to have faith in Al plus I do rate Masvidal fairly highly. I think his hands are better and he wins this on aggression and precision.

 

[Wilbo86]

I think Jorge will win the stand up exchanges and Al will look to wrestle as a plan B. And I don't really put a lot of stock in Chiesa hurting him. Just look at some of the other shots he's eaten like against Khabilov. I think it was fairly fluky that Chiesa hurt him.



I hear what you are saying. But, you can't compare Lauzon in any way to Masvidal. They are completely different fighters and completely different stylistic match ups for Al. The Pearson parallel does hold a little more water. The difference is Ross is a little chinny and not as good of a grappler as Jorge is. IIRC, Iaquinta was looking to mix in wrestling with his striking there. I haven't watched that fight since I watched it live but I remember thinking Pearson took a close round 1 before getting KO'd.

It's a close fight but I struggle to have faith in Al plus I do rate Masvidal fairly highly. I think his hands are better and he wins this on aggression and precision.

Yep, agree. I watched the chisea knockdown a few times, IMO it came down to being out of position after a scramble, wasn't to do with chin, IIRC his feet were square/he was moving, and he came to almost instantly after he hit the deck. Definately hear you on Masvidal, rate his whole game pretty highly. Watching Chisea throw a tantrum storm-off after getting D'arced was muy enjoyable.

 

[ezflyer]

i don't think al will go for td's. i think he'll try to outbox masvidal & keep it standing

and i actually think he'll be successful... i got a couple units in on al at +odds... but i'm gonna rewatch some of masvidal's last fights again to remind myself how effective his takedown game is etc.

i wanted to get the early $ in on al cause i expected the line to even out, and it already has once, and i think may again.

 

[bum]

Masvidal has really solid TDD

 

[ezflyer]

ok, i just rewatched dudieva-phillips

how the fuck did dudieva win that fight? plods forward, only throws anything of significance against cage... on her head-and-arm takedowns (lol only wmma takedown that exists outside of esparza) -- she kept ending on bottom..

i had it 30-27 phillips. phillips robbed, for sure.

plus she kept laying there for long periods of time on bottom. pena will destroy her from top.

obviously the injury layoff is a concern, but pena is a good parlay anchor.

 

[Wilbo86]

Line for Iaquinta just hit evens. I misread the openers during the fights last weekend (still hate that thats when they release them) and thought it was +150 for masvidal... bet accordingly, and ended up with 4+ U on Iaquinta at 2.50. Got to say it turned out pretty well. Still considering what to do with it.

 

[ezflyer]

Line for Iaquinta just hit evens. I misread the openers during the fights last weekend (still hate that thats when they release them) and thought it was +150 for masvidal... bet accordingly, and ended up with 4+ U on Iaquinta at 2.50. Got to say it turned out pretty well. Still considering what to do with it.

Lol nice mistake