UFN 161 on ESPN+ 19 Jędrzejczyk vs Waterson

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by JimGunn, Sep 26, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

  2. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    I am going to lose money on Cub again... arent i.
     
  3. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I may be wrong, i just dont see what i typically like to see. Of someone that needs to get the fight on the ground, i like to see athleticism, quickness, power takeodowns, deep takedowns, relentlessness of some sort.

    So far i havent seen anything from Gracie which make me believe im not going to sweat holding his bet ticket. And Cub is underperforming in every fight, so how can one with a straight face, support either guy?

    But, if Gracie gets the fight to the ground Cub is going to tap in side control or from the figure four lock, he has seriously no heart imo.
     
  4. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    But, at +150, i take the chance on Cub hehe. But very small. Because he will probably loose.
     
    Will likes this.
  5. punisherind

    punisherind Moderator Foundation Member

    This fight, when its over, is going to look like the winner should have been -400. As mentioned it will depend on whether kron can get a td. Kron doesnt have the attributes that make me confident he can get tds against someone with good tdd, but i dont think that's cub. Also cub doesnt have great fight iq imo, and will probably give kron an opening. Its only going to take 1 opportunity for kron to lock something up imo.

    1.5u on kron -160
     
    Mirinquads likes this.
  6. punisherind

    punisherind Moderator Foundation Member

    Some breaking news from @raphamarinho of Combate this morning, who reports that Joanna Jędrzejczyk has informed the UFC that she will be unable to make 115 for this weekend's main event

    Waterson is refusing a catchweight and has also refused facing Dern or Ribas per Marinho

    Angela Hill may replace Waterson in the main and face Joanna at a catchweight and Waterson may move to the UFC 244 card.

    Developing story and worth keeping an eye on @raphamarinho's account for any updates.
     
    Moretti and bjpenn85 like this.
  7. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I agree with Cub and hes fight iq. Hes unbelievably stupid fightwise. But, against a Gracie, maybe he can keep it together? Im not impressed by Gracies takedowns, but you only need a haymaker from Gracie which drops Cub, or create som sort of a scramble, and thats enough. Even clinch up against the fence is enough. At these odds, +150 is too tempting because i see the fight as 50/50, as Cub should win, as he is better in most areas, but hes not a guy you trust. I just go by the odds here...
     
  8. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I just watched some of Gracies old fights here. Guy actually sucks. Just everything besides the BJJ is a tragedy. hand speed, takedows, he just marches into the clinch with no regard for whats coming. Looks like UFC 3 takedowns.

    I just didnt remember he was this bad.


    Still, i have a 0.8 unit bet on Swanson, so not like im sold on the dude, but Swanson should perhaps actually be the favourite here as well.
     
  9. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Looks like Joanna is doing her best to make weight and keep the fight on with Waterson. I think she'll come close and look good hopefully. I went big on Joanna when the price dropped today at -300 and -310. If she weighs in a little heavy and the fight stays on advantage to her unless she looks like death on the scale, on top of an already big stylistic advantage. If it's cancelled hopefully bets are voided quickly.

    https://twitter.com/arielhelwani/status/1181982504087162889
     
  10. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I struggle to see how Waterson can win this fight. Do you see a finish here?
     
  11. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Karate Hottie keeps improving and she looks in incredible shape on social media, but I do think it's a bad matchup for her. Joanna is very tough to take down and a better striker than Waterson. Will be difficult for Waterson to land that head & arm throw she does. Unless Joanna is very diminished from the weight cut, certainly a possibility at this point, or gets caught cold early by a punch like she did against Rose who has much better boxing then Waterson, or one of Waterson's head kicks I think she wins a decision or maybe stops Waterson late.
     
  12. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Joanna's open workout and fan questions in case anyone who paid the juice on her is concerned with how she looks:

     
  13. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    Those fundamentals. That hand speed. A bit tempted to lay the juice here . I cant remember her ever getting taken down.

    Im not sure i ever have seen a quicker left hook in my life...that comes fast as lightening.
     
  14. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member


    Well. Have you seen Gracies takedowns? If the fight gets to the ground its over, i agree.

    But let me ask you again my friend, have you ever seen a takedown from mr.gracie?

    IMO the line is correct...its a 50/50 chance he will get it, so wheres the value in that?
     
  15. Vaughany

    Vaughany Active Member

    Don't think he necessarily needs to get a takedown per se, can just jump on Swanson's back sink hooks in and choke him. Swanson is past it, I dont see him being able to stay on his bike and keep moving
     
    marzwoody likes this.
  16. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    If Kron can't get Cub down or jump on his back this is a total mismatch of a fight and Kron will look like a fool getting battered around while he flails helplessly.
     
    bjpenn85 likes this.
  17. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    He must, because otherwise hes completely fucked. If youre really good at something like BJJ, why not just become a superb striker? Or insanely good in wrestling. But these BJJ guys, theyr so fucking hight on their jijutsu, they forget mma its another sport.

    If you look at Gracies takedown, he uses the same tactic as Ben Askren. Blocking any incoming physical threat with his face. Some dude will just knee you in the fucking face, and just end you, for doing that at some point. And if youre in the UFC, you dont have to wait for that moment for very long.

    Gracie, a one dimensional one trick pony, imo, which will be without a ufc career, veeeery soon if hes not changing hes game, rapido!
     
  18. marzwoody

    marzwoody Active Member

    I will take a one dimensional fighter over a shot fighter any day.
     
  19. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I get your point Marzwoody, its a lot of truth in that. Shot fighters can loose to fighters perceivably...a lot worse.

    Its a binary fight. If the fight will go to the ground, is over. If the fight stays standing, Swanson will light him up, cause i cant see how Gracie can get away with his striking and distance management. Fightwise Gracie commits malpcratice, i just cant let that shit slide..lol
     
    marzwoody likes this.
  20. punisherind

    punisherind Moderator Foundation Member

    gianni on luis pena (and according to gianni, "the sharps" are on this as well)
     

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