UFN 160 on ESPN+ 18 Hermansson vs Cannonier

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by JimGunn, Sep 9, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

  2. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Huge value on Brandon Davis as a small favorite against former Glory kickboxer Giga Chikadze. Giga is training with some good people at King's MMA and has a 7-2 MMA record at this point, but his list of opponents is dreadful and he didn't look good in his Contender Series fight either. Giga has good striking with the big gloves in kickboxing and good kicks in MMA but still has poor wrestling & BJJ. Even if he made improvements he should be way behind a fairly well rounded mixed martial artist like Davis in this UFC opportunity. Brandon has decent UFC wins against Austin Arnett, Steven Peterson & Randy Costa and against performed decently against the likes of Zabit Magomedsharipov and lost a split to Kyung Ho Kang most recently. I bet Davis big between -145 & -155.

    From Twitter:

    Chikadze has won two fights over opponents who have earned a win. Their records are:

    C.J. Baines: 2-32
    Anthony Ross: 1-10

    The combined record of the fighters Chikadze’s defeated is:
    3 win
    57 losses.
     
    bjpenn85 likes this.
  3. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member


    I just think Brandon Davis is too stupid to follow a game plan. He almost got Koed by Randy Costa knowing very well that he just should have taken him down and submitted him.

    I think he admitted that in the interview right after, so maybe he has learned his lesson. And he should not think he can defeat a glory kickboxer with a 6-3 record in Glory, as this guy knock out other kickboxers, so despite the fact he has a padded record, man is a phenom on the feet.

    Brandon Davis is in deep shit, if he cant get this fight to the ground. Speed of this chikadze dude is uncomfortable.

    So should one bet this fight? You should kind of bet Brandon Davis at -130, i know he has decent shot if he can get out of the first round.

    But how sure are we that Chikdze who now train at Kings MMA, and have done so for 2.5 year or 3, hasnt seen significantly improvement in his tdd last 6-7 month?

    I dont like fights with x-factors, and a lot of unknowns.

    I need to re-evaluate, i had hoped this fight was an easy Brandon Davis win, but im not so sure.
     
  4. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Maybe he's improved substantially and can rise to the occasion here but Chikadze has been can crushing the flimsiest cans available. Davis would be by far the best fighter he has faced in MMA yet.
     
  5. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I agree with you 100%, that doesnt necessarily make Brandon Davis a good bet. A good bet is if youre money is in a strong position. If you cant with confidence say that Brandon Davis has a advantage standing, and were not so sure if he will A follow a gameplan or follow it early enough for a dangerous situation to occur and B get it to the ground. Weighed against other bets on the card of similar value where you can with confidence say that you have more control over the factors surrounding the fight, why should we then bet Brandon Davis?

    Thats my concern, not that Brandon Davis is the better fighter, cause he is quite clearly, but we need him to win and have an edge over the bookies.

    Normally the bookies are quite good at setting the odds, very often you will se that the opener was correct, but the public comes in on the wrong side and we get a good line..ille say we might have a small edge at the current line which was set at -180 its now -140 ish, ok we got a little edge there, but the x-factors doesnt in my opinion weigh up enough.

    Chikadze may still blast Brandon Davis in round 1 or round 2 despite he has faced absolutely nobody, because he i still vastly.....VASTLY the better striker here, and thats def a concern.

    I dont agree thats this holds a tons of value, i see risk and uncertainty, but you might be correct, it may be a glass is half empty half full type of scenario.
     
  6. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    The phrasing you used, "putting your money in a strong position" sounds exactly like a certain UK based bettor whose YouTube site I familiar with. But that aside, given how poor Chikadze looked against a somewhat live opponent, he would have to have improved substantially to win this bout. That Contender Series bout was pretty bad and that was a big opportunity in front of Dana White and the matchmakers. Maybe his team is really talking him up behind the scenes and he will rise to the occasion here. Brandon Davis just has to be as good as he was in his last few fights to win this, nothing more. Chikadze has to look like a whole new and vastly improved MMA fighter to have a chance here. Stranger things have happened. But Davis has never been knocked out either so it's not like he is very chinny. So all in all as a modest favorite I think my money in a strong position this time even if Giga has put it all together and I lose a bundle.

    Beyond that I don't agree that the bookies are quite good at setting the odds. They have certainly got better over the years though, but there are still a lot of opportunities where they make mistakes with so many bettable fights in the UFC and elsewhere. I'm going to resist the urge to add any more since I feel like arguing so strongly for this probably means Giga will look awesome and turn Davis's liver into mush with a kick for a highlight reel stoppage.
     
  7. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member


    Haha well i dont know. Davis let a regional dude beat him up for 6 minutes, Chikadze only need 10 sec and this fight is over. Davis could have taken Costa down, but instead choose to brawl, so i dont trust him. Maybe i stick him in a parlay for 0.5 unit, but i dont take Davis serious after that performance, its essentially the sam type of matchup.

    I agree with 5dimes makes mistakes, but its not the rule. I think 5dimes is correct 7 out of 10 times, But they miss badly on debuting fighters, this is their achilles heal, but i do think a lot of opportunities also are created by an uneducated public as well.

    This fight was correctly set, -180, think they were right this time.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2019
  8. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    Will keep betting Jared until he lets me down. I like hermansson as well and made bank on him last time out. I would take either at +200.

    Odds are off imho.
     
  9. punisherind

    punisherind Moderator Foundation Member

    Seems like most/all of the fights are taking two way action. Very unusual.
     
    Mirinquads likes this.
  10. Mirinquads

    Mirinquads Active Member Staff Member

    Im going to this thing and I cant find bets, quite depressing!
     
  11. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

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  12. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    I feel like Gianni is spot on in some instances, and then just completely wrong on others, cant make up my mind if this guy is legit or a fraud.

    He was absolutely correct about last weekends bet with Kyle Nelson, it was a perfect assessment, the same goes for Chiasson and landsberg not going the distance.

    But then he talks about algorithm/models about the gunny fight and he talks about the fight is favoured to not going the distance, which i i just think its tuf sell. And the same goes for John Philips and ahmedov, favoured to go the distance? Hes crazy for believing that so.....
     
  13. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    UFC Copenhagen Official Weigh-in from early this morning:

     
  14. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    UFC Copenhagen Ceremonial Weigh-in:

     
    Will likes this.
  15. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    Hermason looks as good as he ever has imho. Not loving my Cannonier bets right now.
     
  16. terpkeg

    terpkeg Member

    Cannonier has looked like different guy since going full time and leaving Alaska for desert. I gave no update on his training for this camp
     
  17. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 Member

    Yes, jack looks very fit.

    The new Jack Hermansson who took down his opponents and ground and pounded them, who beat Jacare and Branch hes good.

    But i wonder if Cannonier is the right side, probably better striking, and there are signs of cannonier if he has continued to develop his ground game has a shot.

    Already at an early stage in his UFC career, he was not submitted by Glover. Thats insane defence for a striker, and this is years ago.

    I also know that Cannoniers coach specifically started training for Hermnassons guillotine even before this matchup even was thought of, only to be prepared if they ever was to meet Hermansson.

    So thats tells you something about the teams dedication to cannoniers ground game.

    Risky fight to bet Hermansson, but again, he may just take down Cannonier and submit him, but me gut feeling tells me were going in for a surprise here.
     
    OnTheO and Will like this.
  18. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    After round 2: Live In-Play Lina Lansberg (+135) vs Macy Chiasson $100.00 for $135.00
     
  19. lucky

    lucky Active Member

    Took giga live
     
  20. lucky

    lucky Active Member

    Robbed
     

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