UFN 159 on ESPN+ 17 Rodriguez vs Stephens

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by JimGunn, Sep 9, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

  2. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    Surprised at the Stephens line. I like yair here.

    Stephens time has passed.
     
    punisherind likes this.
  3. punisherind

    punisherind Moderator Foundation Member

    With you on this one. :rolleyes:
     
  4. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    Leans but no plays yet

    Yair
    Grasso
    Hill (Wiki Cap / Blind on opponent)
    Tyson Nam (Super small. Maybe. Auto fade on Pettis )
    Paul Craig
    Bethe Corrieia ( Dark horse pick. This fight will be on the feet. Eubanks can slow down. Bethe is zombie )


    Thoughts on the above?
     
  5. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    I like Jeremy Stephens here. Yair was losing the Korean Zombie fight on the cards until that last second elbow strike, and got taken down, dominated and stopped by Frankie Edgar before that. A win over 2017 BJ Penn isn't saying much. So his best win is what Andre Fili or a drained-to-featherweight Daniel Hooker? I know Stephens has a lot of losses in his UFC run, but mostly to good fighters, usually dangerous strikers with decent takedown defense and wrestling. Does Yair have the footwork to outstrike Jeremy at range and avoid his power for five rounds and out strike him to a decision? I'm not too confident in that. I don't think Jeremy will be afraid of his flashy strikes or get caught and knocked out. You think Yair can dance around and out point him for a decision as Jeremy follows him around the Octagon for twenty-five minutes? I hope the price gets a few cents better to get back to plus money as it will make my decision easier to bet Stephens even if it's a modest gain in price.
     
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  6. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    I’m flip flopping. I’ve made good money on Stephens then lost a bunch on him vs oldo.

    If he can’t beat oldo I’m not sure how he goes against yair.

    I do appreciate oldo is more physical than yair though.

    I need to rewatch yairs last fight but I thought it was 2-2 going into the fifth. So it wasn’t a blow out up until that point.

    Perhaps a not stephens itd if we can get it at a good price.
     
  7. punisherind

    punisherind Moderator Foundation Member

    Fwiw, fight taking place in Mexico. I read stephens has been training in mexico for a few weeks so the altitude shouldn't be a big issue. But i have to give yair a hometown edge of it goes to cards.
     
    bjpenn85 likes this.
  8. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Say what? Jose Aldo would/should be minimum -200 to Yair Rodriguez if they booked that match this weekend instead, if not more.
     
    Will likes this.
  9. bjpenn85

    bjpenn85 New Member




    IMO Stephans reminds us at least too so some extent of Koreaz Zombie...if that fight went 3 sec more, the judges score cards had him winning. Which means if Stephans is a better version of Korean Zombie, or at the same level, Rodriguez might run into the same problems.

    Yairs footwork cost energy, he isnt a good counter puncher, he is vulnerable in terms of if he cant do his thing, get time and place to setup his kicks hes not winning. That happened over time in his last fight, might happen again here. Stephans has good cardio so expect to see stephans gets stronger while yair will slightly be less and less effective over time.

    But will the judges give Yair rounds despite stephans winning....maybe, so still a fight who can end up as a close dec.
     
    Will likes this.

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