Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by JimGunn, Jul 30, 2019.
UFC 241 Open Workout:
Nate Diaz is actually smoking something on stage at the open workouts, much to the delight of the fans, lol.
Nate sparking up: https://twitter.com/marc_raimondi/status/1161791026924621824?s=21
Yoel vs Costa
I honestly think Yoel is afraid of getting gassed. I think he’s reached that moment a few times in fights (Jacare, Whittaker 1, Kennedy) and probably gets there pretty often in practice and he hates it. He has 6 3rd round KOs - he was getting beaten by Brunson and then all of a sudden he just decides to annihilate him, Weidman outworked him for the better part of two rounds before the flying knee, he barely engaged with Machida in their fight in the first two, Rockhold won the first, etc. The Jacare fight is really the only higher profile ufc fights he’s had where he doesn’t just basically take the first round off. He conserves his energy until he knows he can go hard for four more minutes and then just goes into nothing but fast twitch. The worse thing for a failing gas tank is a failed takedown. On the other side, Costa just beats on guys until they crumble in the corner. I think the big question is can Yoel survive Costa’s 6 minute onslaught?
If I had the time I would check lines that had moved alot and see results. I think these moves are not always sharp. Sure some are but how can u really tell. I've been on the other side of steam where I was convinced some one had inside info. Because I could not understand the line dropping. But then i won easily. Maybe someone could run the numbers?
Imo the bigger question is whether yoel goes for tds. If he does, he will easily survive the first round and a half. Bangbose took costa down 2x in round 1. If he doesnt go for tds, i feel pretty confident in saying he wont last the first 6 minutes.
Terminology is a little confusing. But when i say "sharp money" i dont mean its the right side. Just that its money that the books respect. You are correct that its impossible to know for certain whether its "pros" or "rec" bettors, but im speculating based on how im reading the public sentiment in relation to the line movement.
Example. Last week it seemed everyone was on tecia torres. Yet the line never got steamed past -160 or so. This tells me that there was respected money on Rodriguez even though i didnt see many people backing her.
Contrast with guida/jim miller. In that fight i believe sharp money was on guida but he lost quite easily.
I think you're overrating Costa's stopping power or more likely underrating Yoel's ability to take damage and not get knocked out early.
Could be, but i hope we dont need to find out.
Seems like mma lines move on $$$ rather than who is placing the bets. A whale fan boy can steam the line and it appear to be "sharp"
for sure lines are moving on money, but not all moves are the same. there's no question players are being profiled, and the extent of a move will depend on the amount bet AND the person placing the bet. someone can cause a steep move at dimes with a $10 if they have been limited to $10 max bet. meanwhile another player might not move the line with a $100 bet.
that said, trying to figure out whether "sharps" or "squares" ("public" or "pros" etc.) are moving the line is not an exact science. a lot of speculation on my part, but i also think there are ways to make an educated guess.
christos jiagos getting steamed right after the greek releases play on klose.
how much of the move on jiagos is "sharp money", and how much is fading the greek fraud?
UFC 241 Media Day Staredowns:
dimes would move lines any time and every time ezy put a bet in
Diaz keeping the diaz trend alive and no showing.
They are their own worse enemy.
Makes for great popcorn moments for the hardcores but how can a multi billion dollar Corp push a fighter they can’t trust or control.
Gianni says the price isn't high enough on Cory Sandhagen & Drakkar Klose. Hope you cash 'em, don't trash em!
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