confidence picks

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by sbjj, Jan 9, 2015.

  1. sbjj

    sbjj Member

    Ok. Lets try something. Break down this card and give your fighter pick along with your confidence level on the fighters chance of winning.

    5...close to a lock
    4....pretty damn confident
    3....yea, decent lean
    2....I'd pick him. But no bet
    1....have no clue who these guys are. But fighter A looks tough than fighter B
     
  2. sbjj

    sbjj Member

    Irish GOAT vs Siver. GOAT 5...nough said

    Bendo vs cowboy. Cowboy 4...growing confidence here

    Larkin vs Howard. Larkin 2...F both these guys

    Tibau vs. Parke. Tibau 2....tough one. Tibau could be getting shopworn.

    Hall vs. Taylor. Hall 3... i hate hall, but not sure taylor has the tools to beat him

    Holohan vs. Howell. Holohan 2...lol, holohan is lucky he's irish. If he was a jew like EZ, he'd be working at a doughnut shop.

    Pendred vs. Spencer. spencer 2...weird fight for me. I really like spencer, but pendred might have the style and grit to eke out a decision in front of his adoring crowd.

    Oconell vs. Vanburen. Vanburen 1..... Gut tells me it's a grinding fight. And vanburen edges it by very slim margin.

    Sanchez vs. Matsuda. Sanchez 3..... I think he has the tools to win for sure. Worried he doesn't use them.

    Rosa vs. Soriano. Soriano 3....i went back and forth on this one. But concluded that soriano is just a much better athlete. I hope his first 2 ufc fights have made him wiser.

    Case vs. Perez. Perez 3..... I really like this kid. Is it to much to soon. We will see. Kid's improving fast.

    Wade vs. Lipeng. Wade 4.....like perez, wade is legit IMO.
     
  3. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    this is ignoring betting odds completely, yea?

    wow at cerrone 4!

    and since when are jews doughnut shop employees?? jews own the shop!
     
  4. sbjj

    sbjj Member

    Depends if the jew is retarded
     
  5. sbjj

    sbjj Member

    Yea. No lines involved. And yea, cerrone is growing in confidence with me. Maybe 3.5
     
  6. PSUMike

    PSUMike Active Member

    No lines involved:

    MacGregor vs Siver. MacGregor 4 - Siver is more dangerous and well rounded than he's given credit for.

    Bendo vs cowboy. Cowboy 3 - Bendo's wrestling still scares me especially in a 3 rounder

    Larkin vs Howard. Larkin 4 - Bad stylistic match up for Howard

    Tibau vs. Parke. Tibau 4 - Tibau is better everywhere except cardio

    Hall vs. Taylor. Hall 2 - Hall is too flaky for any confidence

    Holohan vs. Howell. Holohan 1 - After Holohan's dogshit performance in his last fight...

    Pendred vs. Spencer. Pendred 2 - Spencer isn't a great grappler and Cathal "ZZZ" Pendred may clinchrape him into a few TDs. Spencer should have a sizable stand up edge though at range.

    Oconell vs. Vanburen. Vanburen 1 - Flip a coin on these cans

    Sanchez vs. Matsuda. Matsuda 2 - Matsuda impressed me more in losing to Beal than Beal did in winning. He's got nice stand up.

    Rosa vs. Soriano. Soriano 3 - Soriano should have a massive edge in the stand up and his TDD is serviceable.

    Case vs. Perez. - Not even gonna pretend to know.

    Wade vs. Lipeng. Wade 4 - Fade the Chinks
     
  7. sbjj

    sbjj Member

    Yea mike. 3 rounds scares me a bit in regards to bendo/cowboy
     
  8. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    i'll get mine in soon
     
  9. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    mcgregor 5 - 25 mins.. he gets siver out of there.

    cerrone 1 -- i'm giving cerrone maybe 55% at best here. absolutely conceivable for bendo to win a 3 rd decision if he can get td's. in fact, his standup has improved a lot since the first two times they fought. (cerrone's wrestling has improved, though)

    hall-taylor can't say. need to study taylor more. at present, he's about a 3 or a 4, from what i know.

    tibau 2 - ALMOST a 3. pretty darn confident that tibau takes rd 1. less confident, but confident nonetheless that parke wins the 3rd. i think tibau can win the first two before tiring. he's bigger, stronger.. throws harder and has the wrestling edge. very likely this hits the cards.

    pendred 1 - he has ways to win here. if he can make this physical (and not gas out too early), he can outgrapple spencer. spencer sucks on bottom. pendred can also land the harder strikes (but way less accurate). conversely, absolutely conceivable (and pretty likely) that spencer wins a decision on the feet. he has like no power, though. very likely this hits the cards.

    larkin 1. i lean larkin here, but man, i don't trust the guy. i question his mental state. howard fights a lot of close fights. some against guys he shouldn't, even. larkin is the quicker/better striker, but howard has more ways to win. IF howard grapples, there's a clear blueprint on how to beat larkin. take his ass down. larkin loses his speed / pop after the first round, too. on paper, larkin SHOULD outpoint howard for a decision.

    wade 2 - i don't know how we can put him higher than a 2. MAYBE a 3. maybe. he looked great in his debut. he's the wrestling coach for laflare/bermudez/etc and crosstrains with serra's camp i think, a lil? he might be freakin legit. but i'm not getting carried away here, yet. a sub over another rookie last time.. i think wade's more of a grinder overall. in fact i don't think he finishes zhang. zhang is immense for 155. handful. i think this one might be closer than a lot of people (and the odds) suggest.

    holohan-howell -- not enough info on howell for me to evaluate yet. at present, from what i know, 2 or 3 for holohan

    case-perez -- not enough info for me on perez yet. at present, maybe case 1.

    soriano 2 - i think he has some clear advantages against rosa. standing = soriano. wrestling = soriano. rosa throws more volume. rosa is more unpredictable. rosa can be dangerous if soriano gives up his back too easily or w/e. but i don't think rosa seals the deal where skelly couldn't even if he does.

    O'Connell 1 - o'connell shouldn't be this big of a favorite over anyone in the ufc. oconnell prolly has the standup edge. he's a tougher dude, too. but he's gonna be vastly undersized (MVB is 6'5) and i don't think van buren will just trade w/him and slug it out. i think he goes for takedowns. if he can get them, he can definitely decision o'connell. that's arguably the best way to beat o'connell.

    sanchez 2 - i think joby just has more weapons. if i knew he'd offensively wrestle at points in the fight, he'd be a 3. i think he might have more power than matsuda and he's really calm under pressure. think he gets the decision here.
     
  10. Will

    Will Administrator Staff Member

    Hi Sbjj, I have been avoiding posting here because some of these matches i am unfamiliar with and allot of them i am not confident in.
    I will hold off until next event for confidence picks
     
  11. marzwoody

    marzwoody Active Member

    Besides McGregor and Wade, none of them are a 4 or 5 to me. i have a bet on Cerrone but wouden't be surprised in the slightest if Benson take it.

    Also surprised to see many on Tibau. should be a close fight but i think Parke takes the dec.
     
  12. Kicker

    Kicker New Member

    Irish GOAT vs Siver. GOAT 4. -1 in case siver lay n parties for a round

    Bendo vs cowboy. Cowboy 2. i like the value of the line but not super confident

    Larkin vs Howard. Larkin 3 IF HE MAKES WEIGHT

    Tibau vs. Parke. Tibau 2, it comes down to round 2 IMO

    Hall vs. Taylor. canceled

    Holohan vs. Howell. Holohan 3.5 i think they gave the irish a dream matchup, howell is weak to subs and as borg showed the RNC, which is holohans speciality

    Pendred vs. Spencer. spencer 2, i think spencer should take rounds 2-3 easily but pendred is a hrad read for me

    Oconell vs. Vanburen. oconnel 1.5 i think he is too durible for MVB, but I don't know much about MVB

    Sanchez vs. Matsuda. Sanchez 2 I think he is too skilled standing and Matsuda gassed bad in his last fight, short notice i know but still..

    Rosa vs. Soriano. Soriano 2 much better striker, and i hope he can keep it standing.

    Case vs. Perez. Perez 2 good value on this dog, just a well rounded kid who fights smart, better grappler than case

    Wade vs. Lipeng. Wade 3..... probably too strong and the chinese is too sloppy
     
  13. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    .5's are cheating, bread!
     
  14. ezflyer

    ezflyer Active Member

    holohan's a 2 for me. (NOT worth this juice)

    very possible he gets a sub here. i wish i could fade both holohan AND howell.
     
  15. sbjj

    sbjj Member

    Yea. I would like to drop cerrone to a 2.875. 4 is just stupid on my part.
     

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