Bellator 161 - Johnson vs Kongo - Texas

Discussion in 'Gambling and Betting Forum' started by ezflyer, Sep 9, 2016.

Added to Calendar: 09-16-16
  1. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

  2. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

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  3. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    kinda like kakai, warren kinda shot... idk on -150, tho. maybe o2.5 -150.

    kongo for sure is the play for me at +125. yea, tony 'puddings' (mma analysis shoutout?) is a pretty reliable lnp'er but he shouldn't be -165 here, no way imo. if anything, do O2.5 -170 at almost the same price, way safer than johnson ML at -165, i dont' see him finishing kongo at all.

    no clue who arteaga is.

    don't remembr seeing djamil chan, either...
     
  4. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    took 2u kongo +125

    0.6u kakai -120
    0.75u kakai-warren O2.5 -150
     
  5. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    0.5u campos-chan U1.5 +140

    campos has been fighting like a madman. it's not a coincidence that the former decision machine has had 5 striaght U1.5 fights

    chan looks willing to throw down, too
     
  6. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK I missed Kongo at + money. I really thought he was going to open as the favorite. I also took the under 1½ for .5u in the Campos/Chan fight at +140. Now trying to decide if I should bet Kongo now at -130 or if the line bounces back.
     
  7. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Also put .5u on a parlay of the over 2½'s on the co-main with Warren/Kakai & main event of Kongo/Johnson at +140.
     
  8. Mirinquads

    Mirinquads Active Member Staff Member

    Chan is a very solid muay thai striker. Trains with Manhoef and those dutch guys, if Campos chooses to brawl here it could be a very short night for him. But he has looked great lately and always been underrated to me.

    So Yanko is only the fav because she's hot, yeah?
     
  9. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Probably counter-intuitive for a female flyweight bout, but I bet 1u on the under 1½ at +100 in the Yankova/Arteaga fight thinking Yankova gets an early submission yet again against the American girl who, like Yankova herself, has fought only poor competition.
     
  10. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    pretty much, tho for a supposed-kickboxer, (yank) her bjj looked fairly decent so far
     
  11. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    EZ, how do you expect Kongo to win? You think he can keep Johnson from taking him down or be able to get up if he does get taken down? Do you think he can knock Johnson out or just stay off of his back long enough to use striking to win rounds on the feet? Remember, it's a three round fight. I was leaning Kongo before the lines came out but now it seems like a lot of people are figuring Johnson will just wrestlefuck Kongo to win a decision.
     
  12. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    yes, i favor kongo here. he's definitely the better striker. johnson is gonna try to hold him against the wall and obviously go for td's, and i'm not so sure he'll get those td's very easily. in fact, i do think it's possible for kongo to surprise johnson with a td of his own.. and if he did, he could do more on top than johnson does.

    a bet on johnson is a bad bet, imo, when you can take o2.5 for nearly the same price (at least where they opened)
     
  13. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    I was kind of thinking along those lines before the lines opened. Some others gave me pause for thought. Maybe Kongo will climb over the +125 opener if I wait a little longer.
     
  14. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    Going with my initial lean, 2u on Kongo at +120. I don't think that line will get better.
     
  15. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

  16. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

  17. JimGunn

    JimGunn Active Member

    I think this is also in Kongo's favor if Johnson wants to strike on the feet rather than wrestle.:

    http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/8/1...ohnson-interview-matt-mitrione-fight-mma-news

    "I kind of want to exchange with him, honestly. I haven't showed that part of my game. People in Nashville and people that spar with me know that I have real good striking. I just haven't showed it. I haven't been comfortable enough in the cage to showcase it. But I'm getting comfortable. God help the heavyweights when I do get comfortable; it's going to be bad for everybody"
     
  18. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    Grez kakai up to +130..
     
  19. terpkeg

    terpkeg Member

    Think Spartan has better wrestling than Johnson? Kongo has seen very susceptible to take down. Seems like that's where this fight will go. Brother suicide is a curveball though.
     
  20. ezflyer

    ezflyer Moderator Staff Member

    he has a better blast double from center of cage, yea, johnson maybe better against cage tho
     

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